MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Nov.25 2024

1. Review

The Nikkei Average closed last week at 38,283, down 359 points from the previous week. The week's high was on Tuesday the 19th at 38,560. The week's low was on Thursday the 21st at 37,945. Although the week's low fell below the weekly downside support line, the close price was above it, triggering bullishness. However, this close price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in three weeks. Nevertheless, the underlying trend is still considered to remain in a “neutral” state.

2. Cycles

This will be explained in Forecast 2025, released in December, but the Nikkei Average has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. The starting point is 6,994 on October 28, 2008. This cycle is split into two halves by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of June 24, 2016 at 14,864 and February 12, 2016 at 14,865. From here, the second half (the 2nd 8.33-year cycle) began. Therefore, 2024 was the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

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