MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Nov.5 2024

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 38,053, up 140 points from the previous week. The week’s low was 37,757 on Monday the 28th. The week’s high was 39,417 on Wednesday the 30th. Although the high exceeded the weekly resistance level, the closing price was below it, triggering a bearish signal. Accordingly, the sequence of bearishness is considered to continue. In fact, this closing price was below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the third consecutive week. Therefore, ordinarily the trend should be downgraded to “downward,” but on a weekly basis the close was bullish, so the stance should still be regarded as “neutral.”

2. Cycles

This is explained in the December release of ‘Forecast 2025,’ which notes that the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. This cycle is divided into two parts by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at June 24, 2016, at 14,864, and February 12 of the same year at 14,865 showing a “double bottom.” The second half (the 2nd to the 8.33-year cycle) has begun. Therefore, 2024 corresponds to the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

Please refer to the PDF for the continuation.

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