[10/14~10/18] Market recap and next week's scenarios (GOLD/SILVER/DXY/USDJPY/EURUSD)

GOLD (XAUUSD)

【Weekly】

• Closed with a bullish candle, forming a bullish signal even in the resistance zone. Since there is no strong resistance, long positions have an advantage until a turning point arrives.
  

【Daily】

• After a brief pullback, price rose from the upper bound of the support zone and broke straight up
  → With a new high, it may pull back again and form a pattern; until then, the lower timeframes will dominate the market.
  

【4-Hour】

• During the pullback, a channel forms between the daily zones; at the channel upper bound, a pattern that denies a head-and-shoulders on the 1-hour timeframe forms and breaks higher, resuming the uptrend
  → After the breakout, the first upward wave appears to have extended enough; if chasing, use a clear breakout on the shorter timeframe while waiting for the next pattern on the higher timeframe
• Entrypoints for this pullback include: ① long from the daily support zone with a wide stop (expected value: medium) ② long on a neckline denial after the channel breakout (expected value: high) ③ after confirming the channel breakout, look for a breakout of the 4H or daily zones to chase long (expected value: low) approximately
  

SILVER (XAGUSD)

【Weekly】

• Consolidation whether a 3-wave formation can occur at the monthly level and then break higher
  → The upside potential is quite high; if the trend for precious metals continues to rise including GOLD, I would actively look for long setups
  

【Daily】

DXY

【Weekly】

• A strong rise from the monthly zone has returned within the consolidation where a breakout occurred, indicating a very strong dollar recently
  → With indicators after rate cuts generally showing strength, the dollar’s ascent continues. Watching to see how far dollar strength lasts. Personally hoping for dollar weakness.
  

USDJPY

【Weekly】

• Dollar/yen sits around the center of the monthly zone, touches the lower bound of the weekly zone, and has reached the 50% retracement of the recent decline, aligning with the weekly cloud and 21-SMA
  → If a dollar-soft scenario starts, a turn may come soon. Conversely, if it breaks above the monthly zone, a massive yen depreciation could occur
  With the presidential election counting approaching, the coming weeks may become a turning point; watching carefully which direction it breaks
  

EURUSD

【Weekly】

• After breaking above the diamond formation, a W-top forms and price falls to the neckline
  → If the dollar-soft scenario occurs, a large upward move could be triggered from this pattern, but at present the dollar is strong and the neckline is being broken significantly, so uncertain