MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Average Stock Price By Raymond Merriman Oct.21 2024

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 624 points from the previous week at 38,981. The week's high was 40,257 on Tuesday, October 15.

The week's low was 38,893 on Friday, October 18. Although the week's high exceeded the upper resistance line, it subsequently retreated, and by the close it fell below the weekly lower support line, indicating extreme bearishness. Furthermore, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in five weeks. Therefore the underlying trend has been downgraded from an “upward trend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

This will be explained in the December release of 'Forecast 2025'. There is a long-term cycle of 17 years in the Nikkei 225. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year segments; the first half ended on June 24, 2016, at 14,864, with the second half beginning on February 12 of the same year at 14,865, forming a “double bottom.” From here, the second half (the 2nd-8.33-year cycle) has begun. Thus, 2024 corresponds to the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

For more details, please see the PDF file.

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