Forex: 10/18 close (yen strengthens, dollar weakens: selling USD/JPY, buying EUR/USD
| 5 PM - NY close | 2024/10/18 | ||
| OPEN | LAST | CHANGE | |
| USD/JPY | 150.09 | 149.52 | ▲ 57 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0842 | 1.0867 | △ 25 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3051 | 1.3048 | ▲ 3 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6714 | 0.6705 | ▲ 9 |
| EUR/JPY | 162.73 | 162.49 | ▲ 24 |
| GBP/JPY | 195.89 | 195.11 | ▲ 78 |
| AUD/JPY | 100.78 | 100.26 | ▲ 52 |
■ Position Change, Signals – Friday, October 18
・ Tokyo morning: yen strength and dollar weakness. As European time approaches, dollar weakness. From European time to London fix: yen broadly stronger, dollar weaker. Tokyo 26:00: yen broadly stronger, dollar weaker. From European time to New York close: yen strength and dollar weakness.
・ Throughout the day, dollar weakness.
・ USD/JPY balance shifted to selling at 149.84 and buying euros at 1.0850, moving to an overnight position.
・ In order of strongest against the dollar, yen, pound, euro, Australian dollar (intraday basis).
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・ U.S. Treasuries show lower yields (bull steepening)
US 02yr 3.950 (-0.028)
US 05yr 3.880 (-0.022)
US 10yr 4.085 (-0.008)
・ Japanese government bonds show rising yields
JP 02yr 0.429 (+0.003)
JP 05yr 0.585 (-0.002)
JP 10yr 0.964 (+0.005)
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Dollar/Yen
Tokyo open 150.11
Intraday high 150.28 (08:00)
Intraday low 149.36 (25:00)
New York open 150.01
New York high 150.08 (21:00)
New York low 149.36 (25:00)
New York close 149.52
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Tokyo market USD/JPY spot volume (10/17)
5,163 (million dollars)
10-day moving average 4,420
Recent 10-day maximum 5,617 (10/3)
Recent 10-day minimum 3,417 (10/11)
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■Main economic indicators (US emphasis), interest rate decisions, events, news, etc.
08:30 September nationwide CPI (excluding fresh food, total, YoY forecast +2.3%)
08:30 September nationwide CPI (excluding fresh food and energy, YoY forecast +2.0%)
11:00 Q3 GDP (China, YoY forecast +4.5% / QoQ +1.0%)
11:00 September China industrial production (YoY forecast +4.5%)
11:00 September China retail sales (YoY forecast +2.5%)
15:00 September UK retail sales (incl. auto fuel, MoM forecast -0.3% / YoY +3.2%)
21:30 September U.S. housing starts (forecast 1.350 million, MoM -0.4%)
21:30 Building permits (forecast 1.460 million, MoM -0.7%)
U.S., U.K., Germany, France top leaders' meeting (Berlin)
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・ September nationwide CPI excluding fresh food and energy YoY +2.1% (previous +2.0%)
・ Q3 China GDP +0.9% QoQ (previous +0.7%)
・ September China industrial production YoY +5.4% (previous +4.5%)
・ September China retail sales YoY +3.2% (previous +2.1%)
・ Aoki, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
“We will refrain from comment as the current exchange market could have unforeseen market impacts.”
“It is important that the exchange rate reflects fundamentals and remains stable.”
“We will monitor currency movements, including speculative trends, with high vigilance.”
・ September UK retail sales MoM +0.3% / YoY +3.9% (previous +8.3% / 1.0%)
・ Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan
“We will monitor the impact of currency market movements and the economy and prices.”
“Under the 2% price target, we will operate monetary policy appropriately in consideration of the economy, prices, and financial conditions to achieve sustained and stable realization.”
・ September U.S. housing starts MoM -0.5% (previous +9.6%)
・ September U.S. housing starts 1,354,000 (previous 1,356,000)
・ September U.S. building permits 1,428,000 (previous 1,470,000)
・ Atlanta Fed President Bostic
“A recession was not in my forecast.”
“With a 0.50% rate cut, the Fed would be ready for any eventuality.”
“If inflation rises, the Fed will act aggressively.”
(If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, we will perform a final check before NY close, move the new position to an overnight position, and close the initial position. If the intraday new position is canceled, the initial position will be maintained. Therefore, if a new position arises due to intraday balance changes, it will be paired with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, there may be a loss or gain.)
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Current positions
■ USD/JPY
10/18 — SELL at 149.84
10/16 — BUY at 149.47
10/15 — SELL at 149.40
10/9 — BUY at 148.02
10/8 — SELL at 148.19
(LAST at 149.52)
Downside support 149.72, rebound resistance 149.93
■ EUR/USD
10/18 — BUY at 1.0850
10/14 — SELL at 1.0933
10/11 — BUY at 1.0935
10/9 — SELL at 1.0974
10/8 — BUY at 1.0978
(LAST at 1.0867)
Support 1.0843, resuming ascent confirmation point 1.853
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