Forex: 10/15 close (yen strong, dollar strong): USD/JPY sell, EUR/USD sell
| 5pm–NY close | 2024/10/15 | ||
| OPEN | LAST | CHANGE | |
| USD/JPY | 149.24 | 149.19 | ▲ 5 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0899 | 1.0892 | ▲ 7 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3072 | 1.3072 | △ 0 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6706 | 0.6702 | ▲ 4 |
| EUR/JPY | 162.65 | 162.50 | ▲ 15 |
| GBP/JPY | 195.09 | 195.03 | ▲ 6 |
| AUD/JPY | 100.07 | 100.00 | ▲ 7 |
■ Position changes, signals—Tuesday, October 15
・Tokyo morning: yen strength and dollar strength. As European time approaches, yen strength and dollar strength. From European time to London fix, dollar weakness. From European time to NY close, yen strength and dollar strength.
・Throughout the day, small dollar weakness.
・The 日中 balance changed to USD/JPY selling at 149.40 and shifted to an overnight position.
・In order of strongest to weakest against the dollar: Yen, Pound, Euro, Australian (based on intraday).
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・U.S. Treasuries show lower yields (bull flatten).
US02yr 3.950(-0.035）
US05yr 3.856(-0.071）
US10yr 4.034(-0.078）
・Japanese government bonds show rising yields (bear steepening).
JP02yr 0.419（+0.012）
JP05yr 0.588（+0.012）
JP10yr 0.969（+0.025）
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US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Tokyo open price 149.69
Intraday high 149.84 (8:00)
Intraday low 148.85 (18:00)
NY open 149.35
NY high 149.54 (26:00)
NY low 148.94 (23:00)
NY close 149.19
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Tokyo market USD/JPY spot volume (10/11)
3,417 (million dollars)
10-day moving average 5,538
Recent 10-day max 7,700 (9/30)
Recent 10-day min 3,417 (10/11)
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■Main economic indicators (US-focused), rate decisions, events, news, etc.
13:30 August industrial production (preliminary)
15:00 September German wholesale prices (WPI)
15:00 September UK employment data (unemployment rate / Jobless claims)
18:00 October German ZEW economic sentiment index (expected 10.0)
21:30 October U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index (expected 3.9)
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・U.S. rates are expected to rise, more likely if Mr. Trump is re-elected — WSJ
・September German WPI rose 0.3% (previous -0.8%)
・September UK employment data: unemployment rate 4.7% / 27k claimants (previous 4.7% / 23.7k)
・October German ZEW sentiment index 13.1 (previous 3.6)
・October U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index -11.9 (previous 11.5)
・Daily San Francisco Fed President
“If it follows expectations, there is a high likelihood of one or two rate cuts this year.”
(If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, a final check will be done before NY close and the new position will be moved to the overnight position, with the initial position closed. If the new intraday position is canceled, the initial position remains. Therefore, if a new position arises due to a change in intraday balance, it will be a hedge with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, a loss may occur.)
◆Announcement◆
We are considering migrating from GogoJyan to another medium.
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Current position
■ USD/JPY
10/15 – SELL @ 149.40
10/9 – BUY @ 148.02
10/8 – SELL @ 148.19
10/1 – BUY @ 143.60
9/27 – SELL @ 144.50
(LAST @ 149.19)
Breakdown continuation confirmation point 149.23, return resistance 149.46
■ EUR/USD
10/14 – SELL @ 1.0933
10/11 – BUY @ 1.0935
10/9 – SELL @ 1.0974
10/8 – BUY @ 1.0978
9/25 – SELL @ 1.1132
(LAST @ 1.0892)
Breakdown continuation confirmation point 1.0895, return resistance 1.0903
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