Forex: 10/14 close (yen depreciation dollar appreciation): buy USD/JPY, sell EUR/USD
| 17:00–NY close | 2024/10/14 | ||
| OPEN | LAST | CHANGE | |
| USD/JPY | 149.36 | 149.73 | △ 37 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0928 | 1.0908 | ▲ 20 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3061 | 1.3058 | ▲ 3 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6731 | 0.6725 | ▲ 6 |
| EUR/JPY | 163.22 | 163.34 | △ 12 |
| GBP/JPY | 195.09 | 195.53 | △ 44 |
| AUD/JPY | 100.54 | 100.70 | △ 16 |
■ Position Changes, Signals – October 14 (Monday)
・Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar strong. As European time nears, yen weak, dollar strong. From European time to London fix, yen weakness across the board, dollar strength. From European time to NY close, yen weakness, dollar strength.
・Throughout the day, dollar strength accelerates. U.S. markets are closed for a holiday and thin.
・日 through 日 balance shifted: euro selling to 1.0933, transitioning to an overnight position.
・Against the dollar, strongest order: Pound, Aussie, Euro, Yen (based on intraday).
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・U.S. Treasuries rose in yields (Twist/Steeve) at close on 11th
US02yr 3.953(-0.006）
US05yr 3.898(+0.011）
US10yr 4.096(+0.031）
・Japanese government bonds fell in yields at close on 11th
JP02yr 0.408（-0.009）
JP05yr 0.576（+0.011）
JP10yr 0.945（-0.014）
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USD/JPY
Tokyo opened 149.08
Intraday high 149.97 (28 hours)
Intraday low 149.08 (7:00)
NY open 149.65
NY high 149.97 (28 hours)
NY low 149.63 (21:00)
NY close 149.73
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Tokyo market: USD/JPY spot volume (10/10)
5,218 (million dollars)
10-day moving average: 5,538
Recent 10-day high: 7,700 (9/30)
Recent 10-day low: 3,499 (10/7)
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■ Main economic indicators (U.S. focus), interest rate decisions, events, news, etc.
12:01 China's September trade balance (forecast: a surplus of $89.80 billion)
22:00 Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, to participate in a panel discussion
28:00 Waller, Fed Governor, to speak
U.S. markets closed for Columbus Day
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・Shiba, Prime Minister Ishiba, says need to review Abenomics – Asahi Shimbun interview
・Trump possibly assaulted again, man with a gun arrested near rally
・Ishiba: “I am not considering a consumption tax increase within my term”
・September China's trade balance: $81.71 billion surplus (vs prior $91.02 billion)
・China’s September exports likely fell far below expectations; growth engine slowing – Bloomberg
・Dollar strength remains solid as before, Goldman – Bloomberg
・Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed
“The economy is in the final stage of returning inflation to 2%”
“The labor market remains solid”
“Further gradual rate cuts seem appropriate”
・China may issue 6 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term sovereign bonds as part of stimulus – Caixin
（If there is a change in the日中 balance and a new position is taken, before NY close we will confirm and move the new position to an overnight position, and settle the initial position. If the new position is canceled during the day, the initial position up to that point remains. Therefore, when a new position arises due to changes in the 日中 balance, it will be a hedge against the initial position, and if that new position is canceled, there may be a loss）
◆Notice◆
We are considering migrating from GogoJiang to another medium.
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Current positions
■ USD/JPY
10/9 – BUY @ 148.02
10/8 – SELL @ 148.19
10/1 – BUY @ 143.60
9/27 – SELL @ 144.50
9/25 – BUY @ 143.55
(LAST @ 149.73)
Support 149.42, breakout point 149.63
■ EUR/USD
10/14 – SELL @ 1.0933
10/11 – BUY @ 1.0935
10/9 – SELL @ 1.0974
10/8 – BUY @ 1.0978
9/25 – SELL @ 1.1132
(LAST @ 1.0908)
Downside resume trigger 1.0907, rebound resistance 1.0918
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