Currency: 10/11 close (yen weakness, dollar strength): dollar-yen buy, euro-dollar buy
| 5:00 PM ～ NY close | 2024/10/11 | ||
| OPEN | LAST | CHANGE | |
| USD/JPY | 148.79 | 149.14 | △ 35 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0945 | 1.0935 | ▲ 10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3074 | 1.3065 | ▲ 9 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6743 | 0.6750 | △ 7 |
| EUR/JPY | 162.83 | 163.09 | △ 26 |
| GBP/JPY | 194.51 | 194.86 | △ 35 |
| AUD/JPY | 100.32 | 100.68 | △ 36 |
■ Position Change, Signals — Friday, Oct 11
・ Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar weak. As European time approaches, yen weak, dollar weak. From European time to London fix, yen weak, dollar strong. From European time to NY close, yen weak, dollar strong.
・ Throughout the day: small dollar appreciation.
・日中バランスは、ユーロ買い1.0935へ変化し、オーバーナイトポジションへ移行しました。
・ In terms of dollar strength order: Aussie, Pound, Euro, Yen (Japan day baseline).
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・ US Treasuries saw long-term yields rise (twist steve)
US02yr 3.953(-0.006）
US05yr 3.898(+0.011）
US10yr 4.096(+0.031）
・ Japanese government bonds saw yields fall
JP02yr 0.408（-0.009）
JP05yr 0.576（+0.011）
JP10yr 0.945（-0.014）
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Dollar/Yen
Tokyo open 148.49
Intraday high 149.28 (23:00)
Intraday low 148.40 (10:00)
NY open 149.00
NY high 149.28 (23:00)
NY low 148.72 (21:00)
NY close 149.14
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Tokyo market: Dollar/Yen spot volume (10/10)
5,218 (million dollars)
10-day moving average 5,538
Most recent 10 days max 7,700 (9/30)
Most recent 10 days min 3,499 (10/7)
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■ Main economic indicators (U.S. focus), interest rate decisions, events, news, etc.
15:00 Germany September CPI revision (consensus: month-on-month flat / year-on-year +1.6%)
15:00 UK August GDP (consensus: +0.2% m/m)
21:30 U.S. September PPI (consensus: +0.1% m/m / +1.6% y/y)
21:30 Core index excluding food and energy (consensus: +0.2% m/m / +2.7% y/y)
23:00 U.S. October Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan, flash, expected 70.8)
Hong Kong (Chongyang Festival)
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・ U.S. Deputy Secretary of State to visit Japan next week, reaffirming alliance strength
・ Germany September CPI revision: -0.1% (previous -0.2%)
・ UK August GDP m/m +0.2% (previous 0.0%)
・ U.S. September PPI m/m 0.0% / y/y +1.8% (previous 0.3% / 1.9%)
・ U.S. October Michigan consumer sentiment flash 68.9 (previous 70.1)
・ Logan, President of the Dallas Fed
“Inflation will be restrained even with accommodative policy”
“Recent inflation data are very encouraging”
(If there is a change in day-to-day balance and a new position is taken, it will be moved to the overnight position after final confirmation before NY close, and the initial position will be closed. If the Japanese-Chinese new position is canceled mid-way, the previous initial position will be maintained. Therefore, if a new position arises due to changes in the day-to-day balance, it will be a pair-trade with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, a loss stemming from this may occur.)
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Current positions
■ USD/JPY
10/9 – BUY @ 148.02
10/8 – SELL @ 148.19
10/1 – BUY @ 143.60
9/27 – SELL @ 144.50
9/25 – BUY @ 143.55
(LAST @ 149.14)
Support at 148.74, reversal confirmation point 148.95
■ EUR/USD
10/11 – BUY @ 1.0935
10/9 – SELL @ 1.0974
10/8 – BUY @ 1.0978
9/25 – SELL @ 1.1132
9/24 – BUY @ 1.1136
(LAST @ 1.0935)
Support at 1.0937, reversal confirmation point 1.0943
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