What is Super Thursday!? Bank of England, Monetary Policy Announcement

◎ Strategy and Points of Focus

The pound is for taking profit and settlement. Observing for risk avoidance

This timeQuarterly Inflation Report is more important than usual!

In addition to the usual Quarterly Inflation Report, it is anticipated that a Quarterly Inflation Report may be released if the UK chooses to exit the EU without a deal.

◎ Outlook

Today,at the same time as the monetary policy announcementthe Quarterly Inflation Reportwill be released. Since the contents are unpredictable and the inflation report has a large impact on the pound, the pound is fully settled for risk management.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

GBP/JPY Hourly Chart

The pound has been bought significantly yesterday due toBrexit progressin negotiations.

At last month’s EU summit, there was no progress in Brexit negotiations and the November emergency EU summit was postponed, so the pound was in a downtrend, but it has reversed and risen yesterday according to reports.

Today, the Bank of England’sMonetary Policy AnnouncementandQuarterly Inflation Reportwill be released.

What will be announced in the monetary policy are

・Policy rate (unchanged)

・QE amount (unchanged)

・MPC member voting distribution (unchanged nine members: 0 rate hikes)

These three points. (the items in parentheses are forecasts).

Also, announced together with the July, June, September, and November monetary policy is theQuarterly Inflation Report.

ThisInflation Reportis called the financial policy announcement “Super Thursday.”.

In the Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s outlook for the UK economy going forward is presented.

By comparing with the previous release, one can determine whether the UK economy is in an uptrend or a downtrend, and where concerns and risks are seen.

This is what can be discerned.

Therefore,depending on the content of the Inflation Report, expectations for monetary policy changes will shift. Accordingly,the pound’s level will fluctuate significantly.

After that, in the press conference by BoE Governor Carney, there may also be substantial movement.

The pound has inherently high volatility.

Predicting is difficult in the “Super Thursday.” Before that, I plan to settle the pound and focus on risk avoidance.