MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Average Stock Price By Raymond Merriman Oct.7 2024

1. Review

The Nikkei 225 average closed last week at 38,635, down 1,194 points from the previous week. The weekly high was 39,126 on Monday, September 30.

The weekly low was 37,651 on Wednesday, October 2. Although the low fell below the weekly downside support line, the close remained within the support line area, showing almost bearish sentiment. Therefore the bullish streak has ended. However, the close exceeded the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for three consecutive weeks. Accordingly, the overall trend has been upgraded from “neutral” to “uptrend.”

2. Cycles

This will also be explained in the December release of “Forecast 2025,” but there exists a long-term 17-year cycle in the Nikkei 225. The starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year subcycles, with the first half ending at 2016 on June 24, at 14,864, and February 12 of the same year at 14,865 forming a “double bottom.” From here, the second half (the 2nd 8.33-year cycle) began. Therefore, 2024 corresponds to the 16th year of the 17-year cycle.

Moreover, the current 8.33-year cycle consists of two four-year cycles. The first to bottom appeared at 16,358 on March 19, 2020. Starting from this low, the current (second) four-year cycle reached its 53rd month in August 2024. Therefore, this cycle may have bottomed at 31,156 on August 5.

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