Cycle Theory - Environmental Perception | USDJPY 2024.9.27 pm05:00

This is meem. (Note: The original is a bit unclear in context; this line seems to be a name or title.)

It’s been a long time since cycle theory and environmental recognition. I will share USD/JPY.

In the medium to long term (weekly frame), a new cycle has started (the second one).

The result of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election caused a large drop (yen appreciation). Here, I’m watching whether the milestone changes (whether the downtrend continues) as a key point.

On the daily chart, a downtrend is in place, but it looks like a consolidation may form. Cyclically, it is moving toward a high, but given a likely left translation, caution is advised for an early turning to a low.

On the 4-hour chart, it’s moving toward a high, and the expansion signal of the Bollinger Bands flickered with strong upside expectation, but it became unstable due to the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election.

(See below for details)

Cycle theory: W1 cycle is currently the second. The previous cycle was 38 bars. It is moving toward a high now, but this week there may be an upside wick.

(Typically 24–35 bars per cycle)

Moving averages: in a downtrend.

Perfect order: The prior upward move has not finished yet, but the upward signal has broken (closing price fell below the short-term moving average).

Other: Bollinger Bands show a downward expansion, indicating a bearish bias.

Cycle theory: D1 cycle is currently the tenth. It had been rising up to here, but the immediately prior cycle was a downcycle, and the weekly chart above is also in a downtrend, so a left translation is highly likely this time.

It is currently moving toward a high, but the shape is being pressed down by downward-sloping moving averages.

(Typically 35–45 bars per cycle)

Moving averages: continuing to decline.

Perfect Order: Currently, a new downward signal has lit up again.

Other: Bollinger Bands are not expanding, so a consolidation phase may be forming.

Cycle theory: H4 cycle is the 15th. It is currently moving toward a high.

(Typically 24–35 bars per cycle)

Moving averages: Due to a large drop a few hours ago, it has turned downward now.

Perfect Order: The signal is off.

Other: Bollinger Bands had a cue to rise, but the shape deteriorated due to the large drop a few hours ago.

※ Reference: 1-hour chart (no commentary)