About "Practical Position Trading of Hokuto Stellar" — Background of Buying and Selling - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

Dollar/Yen, Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro/Yen, Pound/Yen, and Aussie/Yen positions and lower support, points confirming resumed rise, points confirming resumed decline, and return resistance values are listed. The Nikkei Stock Average, NY Dow-DJIA, S&P500, GOLD, and WTI also publish their trading positions in the same manner.

Forex comments follow the “NY close daily morning positions,” with commentary at “Tokyo 12:00 (or 11:00, 13:00),” “Tokyo 17:00 (or 18:00),” and “Tokyo 24:00 (or 25:00)” on new positions and potential changes to the initial positions based on market conditions.

For the Nikkei Stock Average, trading positions and stop levels are posted after the close. NY Dow-DJIA, S&P500

are posted at the NY close. Also, GOLD and WTI are updated and posted at the NY close.

※※※※※※※※※※ TH-TL Fibonacci Number System ※※※※※※※※※※

During an uptrend, the 0.618 value of the previous day’s True Range is used...

Prices derived from subtracting the previous day’s high establish the lower support.

Prices added to the previous day’s low identify the point confirming resumed rise.

During a downtrend, the 0.618 value of the previous day’s True Range is used...

Prices derived from subtracting the previous day’s high establish the point confirming resumed decline.

Prices added to the previous day’s low form the return resistance.

■ When rising, adopt a buying stance in the lower support to resumed rise confirmation zone.

■ When falling, adopt a selling stance in the decline resumed confirmation point to return resistance zone.

■ If there is a move beyond the return resistance and lower support, indicating a counter-trend movement, it is a turning point.

※If there is a change in the intraday balance and a new position is taken, before NY close, confirm and move the new position to an overnight position, while closing the initial position. If the new intraday position is cancelled, the initial position remains. Therefore, when a new position arises due to intraday balance changes, it will be a pair with the initial position, and if this new position is cancelled, a loss or gain may occur.

※※※※※※※※※ TH-TL Fibonacci Number System ※※※※※※※※※

If subscribers drop to zero, the series will be suspended.

For reference) NY close daily morning positions published 2023/7/29

■ Position changes, signs — July 28 (Fri)

・Tokyo morning shows broad yen strength. As European time nears, the dollar rises and Aussie weakens. From NY to London fix, yen weakens and dollar weakens. NY close shows broad yen weakness and dollar weakness.

・Intraday balance changed to euro/yen buy 154.70, pound/yen buy 180.21, dollar/yen buy 140.36, and moved to overnight position.

・Weakest against the dollar in order: yen, Aussie, pound, euro (intraday basis).

・Following economic data, Aussie slows and declines.

・At the BOJ policy meeting, bond yield threshold at 1.0% would tilt the yen higher. After moving near the center of the intraday range, yen short leads in NY time, and by NY close the yen is broadly weak.

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・US Treasuries: buying in 5-year, 2-year, and 10-year yields lowers rates (bull steepening).

US02yr 4.861 (-0.052)

US05yr 4.177 (-0.067)

US10yr 3.953 (-0.051)

・Japanese Government Bonds show a further rise in yields.

JP02yr -0.012 (+0.030)

JP05yr 0.160 (+0.069)

JP10yr 0.576 (+0.138)

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■ Main Economic Indicators (focus on US), Interest Rate Decisions, Events, News, etc.

08:30 July Tokyo metropolitan CPI (CPI, excluding fresh food, YoY expected +2.9%)

TBD Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (after end, decision announced; forecast: policy rate held at -0.10%)

15:30 Kazuo Ueda, BOJ Governor, Regular Press Conference

10:30 Australia Q2 PPI (Producer Price Index)

10:30 Australia June Retail Sales (expected YoY unchanged)

14:30 France Q2 GDP flash (expected QoQ +0.1%)

15:45 France July CPI flash (expected MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.3%)

21:00 Germany July CPI flash (expected MoM +0.3% / YoY +6.2%)

21:30 US June PCE (core PCE) MoM +0.4% expected

June US Personal Income MoM +0.5% expected

June US PCE Deflator YoY +3.0%

June US PCE Core Deflator MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.2%

23:00 July US Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan final, 72.6 forecast)

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・July Tokyo area CPI YoY -3.2% (previous -3.1%)

・July Tokyo area CPI ex-Food & Energy YoY -3.0% (previous -3.2%)

・Australia June Retail Sales -0.8% MoM (previous -0.8%)

・Australia Q2 PPI QoQ +0.5% (previous -0.7%)

・BOJ maintains negative rate of -0.1% on policy balance

・BOJ Statement

“Willing to loosen policy further if necessary”

“Decided to modify the yield curve control”

“Make the 10-year JGB yield more flexible”

・Outlook for Economy and Prices (Outlook Report)

CPI forecast for fiscal 2023: +2.5% (April +1.8%), for fiscal 24 +1.9% (April +2.0%), for fiscal 25 +1.6% (April +1.6%).

Real GDP forecast for fiscal 2023 +1.3% (April +1.4%), for fiscal 24 +1.2% (Jan +1.2%), for fiscal 25 +1.0% (April +1.0%).

・Implementation of a policy mix (8 in favor, 1 against)

The target range for long-term interest rate is around ±0.5%. Use a flexible approach to monetary operations. For the 10-year JGB yield, if there is no clear bid, the operation with a target yield of 1.0% will be conducted every business day. To form an orderly yield curve consistent with the above policy, continue large-scale government bond purchases and, for each maturity, adjust purchase amounts and implement operations such as fixed-rate operations and common collateral funding ops as needed.

・BOJ Governor Ueda

“Not moving toward policy normalization = YCC modification”

“Uncertain if yield curve control easing will reduce government bond purchases”

“We are not targeting the exchange rate”

“We are considering volatility in the currency market as part of the side effects of easing”

“To reduce financial market volatility”

・France July CPI YoY -4.3% (previous -4.5%)

・US June PCE Core Deflator MoM -0.2% (previous -0.3%)

・US June Personal Income MoM +0.3% (previous +0.5%)

・US June Personal Spending MoM +0.5% (previous +0.2%)

・US July Michigan Consumer Confidence 71.6 (previous 64.4)

・Recession may be years away; WSJ on growth

・Recession recedes, US GDP growth accelerates – WSJ

（If there is a change in intraday balance leading to a new position, end-of-day confirmation moves the new position to overnight, closing the initial position. If the intraday new position is canceled, the initial position remains. Therefore, when a new position arises due to intraday balance changes, it will be a hedged position with the initial one, and if this new position is canceled, a loss may occur.)

■ USD/JPY

7/28 – BUY @ 140.36

7/26 – SELL @ 140.65

7/14 – BUY @ 138.57

7/6 – SELL @ 144.32

7/5 – BUY @ 144.52

(LAST @ 141.17)

Support at 139.26, resumed rise confirmation at 140.00

■ EUR/USD

7/27 – SELL @ 1.1063

7/26 – BUY @ 1.1063

7/19 – SELL @ 1.1233

7/7 – BUY @ 1.0887

7/4 – SELL @ 1.0894

(LAST @ 1.1016)

Downside resumed confirmation 1.0983, return resistance 1.1008

■ GBP/USD

7/27 – SELL @ 1.2907

7/25 – BUY @ 1.2851

7/17 – SELL @ 1.3091

7/7 – BUY @ 1.2718

7/5 – SELL @ 1.2704

(LAST @ 1.2846)

Downside resumed confirmation 1.2810, return resistance 1.2839

■ AUD/USD

7/27 – SELL @ 0.6753

7/25 – BUY @ 0.6741

7/17 – SELL @ 0.6830

7/7 – BUY @ 0.6654

7/5 – SELL @ 0.6665

(LAST @ 0.6647)

Downside resumed confirmation 0.6658, return resistance 0.6680

■ EUR/JPY

7/28 – BUY @ 154.70

7/27 – SELL @ 156.50

7/21 – BUY @ 156.34

7/20 – SELL @ 156.36

7/13 – BUY @ 154.11

(LAST @ 155.52)

Lower support 153.02, resumed rise confirmation 154.00

■ GBP/JPY

7/28 – BUY @ 180.21

7/27 – SELL @ 181.30

7/21 – BUY @ 180.38

7/18 – SELL @ 181.17

7/13 – BUY @ 180.73

(LAST @ 181.35)

Lower support 178.31, resumed rise confirmation 179.52

■ AUD/JPY

7/26 – SELL @ 95.43

7/19 – BUY @ 94.41

7/17 – SELL @ 94.86

7/13 – BUY @ 93.86

7/5 – SELL @ 96.36

(LAST @ 93.84)

Downside resumed confirmation 92.74, return resistance 93.30