Today is the 20th. Targeting the Tokyo-USD at noon (also early London).

Today’s assumptions
Would it be a time to buy when the head feels heavy?

Currently on the 5-minute chart, the GMMAs are downward and the 1-minute chart is also down

However today is Gutoh day
We are hoping for real demand to buy
Will it rise to around 143.141?

However
We are watching around the pivot line at 142.80
I'll switch to a short bias based on the time

Backtest of actual performance

It rose more than expected toward the mid-point reference, didn’t it
On a 15-minute view, a double top is forming

The ironclad chart from the “Secret Book of Shorters” I handed you yesterday
We observed two instances of “trend-following after contrarian entry”

If it rises significantly today, I’ll aim for it
Looking at it by time
The decline after Tokyo’s mid-price and
the reversal of the rise during London hours
It was textbook behavior
How about today?
Rather than deciding in advance, keep in mind that this tendency exists when making trading judgments



At the FOMC, a 0.5% rate cut was decided
The cut is large, but Powell said
the US economy is strong and sound, a hawkish response.

With the true intent unclear, the USD/JPY rose
toward around 144 from short-covering
rising.


If you know the July U.S. employment numbers,
they suggested a rate cut at the July FOMC,
Powell answered in Q&A

Probably this time, together with July,
it means two cuts. The pace of future rate cuts
might not be 0.5% as a fixed rule, cautioned the chair

Even though the U.S. economy is strong, a sizable rate cut is
positive for risk assets
Bitcoin is also rising
In that sense, a sharp drop in USD/JPY
is becoming less likely to be possible, perhaps?
Looking at the big picture, USD/JPY is on a downside path, but
in the short term, with a risk-on posture, it might be good to buy on dips

The Bank of England left policy unchanged.
If there’s a dip, buying GBP/JPY could be
a good idea?

Today’s trading data
Options are overnight (treat as day trading)


Will it push down to the familiar pivot line S1?

Technical analysis (watch the timeframes)