Selling AUD outlook! ~ Australian dollar strategy for the week of October 29~

◎ This Week's AUD Outlook and Strategy

・Bearish AUD View

・Holding a Short AUD/USD position

The AUD is in a downtrend, but、on the daily chart it is entering a low-price area.Therefore, it is difficult to initiate new short positions from here. I plan to add positions at the green horizontal line and take profits at the blue horizontal line.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

◎ Points of Attention for AUD

・Australian political instability →Bearish factor

・Australian economy showing a recovery → Bullish factor

・China's slow economy and US-China policy →Bearish factor

・Crude oil prices and CRB index decline →Bearish factor

Australia is grappling with political instabilityThe Parliament is hung. A hung parliament is not unusual in Australia, but it is not an ideal situation.

Regarding the economy,inflation and wage growth are slightly weak. The unemployment rate is hoped to fall below 5%, but not strictly required. Given the previous unemployment rate was 5%, attention will be on this week's CPI release.

Concerns include China's economic slowdown and the US-China trade waras major issues. Chinese indicators are scheduled for this week. Additionally, concerns in China include ongoing yuan weakness and a slide in stock indices. Last week there was talk that the government may have supported stock prices.

◎ This Week's AUD Trading Triggers

10/30 (Tue)

09:30 Building Permits
11:10Speech by RBA Deputy Governor

10/31 (Wed)

09:30CPI (Consumer Price Index)
10:00 China Manufacturing PMI

11/1 (Thu)

06:30 Manufacturing PMI
09:30 Trade Balance
10:45Caixin Manufacturing PMI

11/2 (Fri)

09:30 Retail Sales