In 3 months, TOTAL +3,580,000 yen PLUS 3,359 pips! And about [Barzala's probability of bankruptcy]

Starting from May, the forward measurement using 【Brake Out Method Dominant】 updated profits significantly in July. Details of the trade history are here↓↓↓

Profit and loss: +3,580,736 yen, +3,359 pips

PF: 3.2

RR: 1.0

Win rate: 74.3%

Total number of trades: 109

So far, the results have been favorable, and especially toward the latter part, trades were satisfying. Also, the disadvantages of breakout methods include “being trapped by a false breakout,” “price sometimes does not extend after a breakout,” and “few trades,” but by selecting currencies and timing with high usefulness as per this method, I strongly feel that I was able to avoid these downsides effectively.In particular, regarding the number of trades, despite being a breakout method, 109 trades is very high, and the characteristic high win rate of breakout methods was maintained. Over these three months, there were trend changes centered around cross-yen pairs, but we could flexibly adapt to the method, gaining confidence and satisfaction in investing.

This time, I would like to write about the bankruptcy probability of the Burl-sala (Varse) method that I mentioned previously.

The bankruptcy probability is a mathematical theory that indicates the probability of capital becoming zero if a trader continues a specific trading strategy. This theory emphasizes the importance of risk management and money management and is also useful in FX trading.

The bankruptcy probability of Val-Sala can be derived from three variables: ① win rate, ② risk-reward ratio, ③ the portion of capital exposed to risk. The formula is as follows.

① Win rate = number of winning trades / total number of trades × 100

② Risk-reward ratio = average profit / average loss

③ Percentage of funds at risk (%) = amount lost in one trade / capital × 100

【Brake Out Method Dominant】 results are currently: win rate 74.3%, RR 1.0.

Let's check a table of bankruptcy probabilities for each risk.

↓ Risk 5%

↓ Risk 10%

↓ Risk 20%

From the current results, the bankruptcy probability of this method at each risk (%) is as follows.

Bankruptcy probability at 5% risk is 0%

Bankruptcy probability at 10% risk is 0–0.02% (accurately 0%)

Bankruptcy probability at 20% risk is 0.1–1.45% (accurately 0.5%)

By keeping a record of trades, you can confirm how safely you are trading. Also, these records provide mental support, so I strongly recommend keeping them.

With this method, you can trade with a certain level of risk and still be sufficiently safe. In today’s volatile market driven by interest rate issues, there is still plenty of opportunity for entries using this method, so please take this opportunity to try it!

For those who have purchased, it might be good to start focusing on that famous point soon (*´ω｀*)

～～～～～～～～～↓↓↓Features of this method↓↓↓～～～～～～～～～