A Week with Numerous Policy Rate Announcements and Speeches by Key Figures from Various Countries! ~ Highlights and Event Schedule for the Week of October 22 ~

◎ This Week's Highlights

1)Policy Rate Announcements

This week features policy rate announcements from several notable countries, including Canada, Turkey, Europe, Norway, Sweden, and Indonesia..

Canada is expected to raise rates by 0.25%. The degree of market pricing is likely around 70-80%, but the concern lies in last week's CPI release. Together with the retail sales data released concurrently, the results were weak. Will rate hikes proceed smoothly, or will there be a surprise hold? This is in focus. .

In Turkey, following a large rate hike last time, a hold is expected this time. Given rising prices, further rate hikes are still deemed necessary, but due to President Erdogan's influence, hikes may not occur and a hold is anticipated. The lira has been gradually regaining its level. If a surprise rate hike occurs, it could be bought back significantly, but hikes are expected to be challenging. .

In Europe, there will be no changes to rates or QE, but look to the press conference. At the press conference, questions are expected on topics such as the Italian budget, the rise in long-term yields, the downward revision of Germany's recent economic growth rate, and issues related to protectionism and tariffs involving the US.

2)Italian Budget and Rating Review

Italy signaled last weekend that it would revise the budget deficit target. It is reported that the deficit could be revised from 2.4% to 2.1%. This has supported a rebound in the euro. However, the worry remains thatMoody's downgraded Italy just before market close. While the announcement drew little reaction at the time, market reactions early next week across countries and markets are of interest. Also, S&P's rating review will be announced this week.Whether the Italian budget will be approved and the market's reaction to rating announcements will be closely watched.

Moody's rating announcement, Italy downgraded! — Explain FX, what ratings mean

3)British Politics and Brexit Negotiations

There was no progress in Brexit negotiations at last week's EU summit. However, there were reports that in the early hours of Saturday Japan time, the EU and the UK showed willingness to move closer. Is this true? And even if so, can it be accepted within the UK? This is in focus. In the UK, there are reports of actions critical of the May administration (calls for May to resign) and demonstrations of up to 700,000 people demanding another referendum.Progress in Brexit negotiations matters, but UK politics is also reaching a crisis point.. Both are tightly pressured, so caution is warranted.

4)U.S. Midterm Elections on the Horizon

On November 6, the U.S. will hold midterm elections. Polls and public opinion surveys are beginning to emerge. President Trump’s campaign efforts are likely to intensify. Domestic tax cuts would be favorable, but there is concern about pressuring foreign countries (China, Russia, Japan, etc.) with difficult demands. Notably, recent remarks by Japanese officials consistently deny currency clauses; this is notable. Attention is on how China will respond to a weaker yuan..5)Long-Term Yields and Global Equity Markets

5)Long-Term Yields and Global Equity Markets

The U.S.-China issues have contributed to declines in Chinese equities (Shanghai Composite) and concerns about European crisis risks from Italy’s budget, leading to global stock declines. The fear index (VIX) has exceeded the 20 baseline at times. Long-term U.S. yields rise due to economic growth, while in Europe, their rise reflects credit concerns and anxiety rather than healthy growth. There is concern about rising funding costs from higher interest rates.This week, will stock prices and rates settle, or will risk-off conditions re-emerge? Worth watching.

◎ This Week's Key Events

10/22 (Monday)

10:00 AUDDebelle, Deputy Governor, RBA speech

10/23 (Tuesday)

07:35 AUDDebelle, Deputy Governor, RBA speech
10:30 AUDBolton, Deputy Governor, RBA speech
12:00 AUDBlock, Deputy Governor, RBA speech
13:30 AUDDebelle, Deputy Governor, RBA speech
19:30 GBPHolden, Deputy Governor, Bank of England speech
22:30 USD Kaspar? Minneapolis Fed President Speech
23:00 EUR European Consumer Confidence

10/24 (Wednesday)

00:20 GBPCarney, Bank of England Governor speech


09:00 USDGeorge, St. Louis Fed President speech





23:00 CADCanadian Policy Rate Announcement

10/25 (Thursday)

00:15 CADBank of Canada Press Conference

02:00 USDBullish Atlanta Fed President Rosengren? (Mester) Speech
02:10 USDMester, Cleveland Fed President Speech


08:00 USDBreynerd, Fed Governor Speech


20:00 TRYTurkish Policy Rate Announcement
20:45 EURECB Governing Council/Statement
21:30 EURDraghi, ECB President Press Conference

10/26 (Friday)

S&P Italy Credit Rating Review

01:15 USDLael Brainard, Fed Governor Speech

10:00 USDMester, Cleveland Fed President Speech

10/27 (Saturday)