Midweek outlook

In this week's outlook, after analyzing each currency pair with circles, crosses, and triangles,

this week the signals look clearly as circles and crosses. Because crosses have already started a trend,

the 503 method suggests that aiming for circles is more efficient.

(I think there are quite a few people taking positions on the cross-marked pairs, and the results

will be seen by observing the surrounding market.)

This is what I wrote. Since all the Asian-cross pairs were crosses, by watching the surrounding trading conditions, wouldn’t you say we can glean more expressive trading content?

In a high-volatility market, entering counter-trend without setting a stop loss is deadly. Even entries aiming for a reversal often fail to reverse when the trend continues.

In such a situation, trend-following is effective. It is better to enter when a pullback is observed. In high volatility, attempting with the trend is also good practice for trading.

In the first half of this week, all currency pairs showed volatility. As noted in the method, it is easier to trade when movements settle down. Since retracements become less frequent, it is recommended to wait for the market to calm before trading.

However,

this week’sREAL TRADEsince market volatility was high, I considered trading with a small lot, but I decided to look at the charts as usual this week and enter all currency pairs that seemed able to take a position. This time I traded with 0.6 lots.

As in the previous time, about 40 pips progressed, and several currency pairs were in profit, but I did not set a trailing stop. (It should be set to end in the positive.) When I checked once, I thought I would set it after it advanced another 50 pips. Also, due to high volatility, moves could happen all at once, so I thought (and perhaps avoided the extra step of setting it, given it was around 40 pips; let’s assume the timing when I looked was not ideal.)

However, if you miss the chance to set it, the high volatility causes wide price swings, and after exceeding highs, retracements occur often, causing most positions to be stopped out.

From this experience, a strategy can be formed: in high volatility periods, set wider stops and adjust position sizes accordingly. Also, since trend-following is more effective, when the price returns to a place where you want to enter, aim to enter in the direction of the ongoing trend.

I set NZDUSD’s stop loss to a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and watched to see which would be hit first (stop loss or target), but no conclusion has been reached yet. Because volatility was high, most of my positions were wiped out before moving forward.

Yesterday’s USDJPY pair seemed to be biased to the downside, but it extended upward, reached the 146 yen range, and then fell back to around 144 yen.

I thought USDCAD would fall, but it rose, reached the second high, and then fell sharply, leaving me at a loss.

When markets move a lot, trading can lead to positions being liquidated. This can require shifting one’s perspective, but it may be that the market is sweeping away many positions.

What matters is understanding which axis the market is flowing from. It is important to determine whether the daily chart is moving toward a higher target, or whether later the weekly chart is aiming for a lower target. In short, understand where the market is heading.

So,

this is the currency pair outlook from Week 503’s method.

In the latter half of the week, it seems possible to target from places worth watching. For the cross yen, if it comes down from the levels to watch, it may test a new low or even go beyond it, so caution is required.

What to pay attention to is whether GBPJPY is leading other currency pairs or if the expected pullback from the watching spots is easy to see. (This is a bit of a mystery.)

In the 503 method, aiming for the circles is considered more efficient.

At the beginning of this week, EURGBP earned 100 pips. However, after that, there was significant volatility, and most pairs were stopped out.

When the market moves violently, resting is also a good option. People running EAs may stop the system during such market conditions. Discretionary trading should also avoid forcing trades unless aiming for a trend-following setup.

Real Trade shows entries from a single point based on the 503 method. From there, achieving 100 pips and setting stop losses for trades are possible. For a month, I aim to have as many positions as possible in currency pairs that appear to offer entry points when glancing at the chart (even if some trades end up stopped out, I have held positions according to the method).