"Hokuto-sei's Practical Position and Trade" - Background of Buy/Sell
Dollar/Yen, Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar, Aussie/Dollar, Euro/Yen, Pound/Yen, and Aussie/Yen positions and support at lower levels, points for reconfirmation of resumed up-move, points for reconfirmation of resumed down-move, and return resistance values. The Nikkei Stock Average, NY Dow-DJIA, S&P500, GOLD, and WTI (no publication on Jan 5, 2024) also list buy/sell positions.
In addition to the NY close “daily morning positions,” we comment on changes in market tone due to new positions at Tokyo 12:00 (or 11:00, 13:00), Tokyo 17:00 (or 18:00), Tokyo 24:00 (or 25:00), and the possibility of initial position changes.
The Nikkei Stock Average publishes buy/sell positions and stop levels after market close. NY Dow-DJIA, S&P500
are published at NY close. Also, GOLD is updated at the Asia time of Tokyo 15:00–16:00 and at NY close.
※※※※※※※※※※TH-TL Fibonacci Number System※※※※※※※※※※
When price rises, use the previous day true range 0.618 value as a reference...
The price subtracted from the previous day’s high marks the lower support.
The price added to the previous day’s low marks the up-move resumed confirmation point.
When price falls, use the previous day true range 0.618 value as a reference...
The price subtracted from the previous day’s high marks the down-move resumed confirmation point.
The price added to the previous day’s low marks the retracement resistance.
■ In an up-move, from the lower support to the up-move resumed confirmation point, adopt a buying stance within the rising formation zone.
■ In a down-move, from the down-move resumed confirmation point to the retracement resistance, adopt a selling stance within the retracement formation zone.
■ If the retracement resistance and lower support are exceeded, and a counter-trend move occurs, it signals a turn.
※ If there is a change in intraday balance and new positions are taken, after final verification before NY close, the new positions are rolled into overnight positions and the initial positions are settled. If a new intraday position is canceled partway, the initial position remains as is. Therefore, when new positions arise due to intraday balance changes, they will be in a hedge with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, there may be a loss or gain.
※※※※※※※※※※TH-TL Fibonacci Number System※※※※※※※※※※
If subscribers fall to zero, the series will be suspended.
Reference) Daily morning NY close positions, published 2023/7/29
■ Position changes, signs – July 28 (Fri)
・In the Tokyo morning, the yen strengthens broadly. Around European time, dollar strengthens, Aussie weakens. From NY to London fix, yen weakens and dollar weakens. NY close shows broad yen weakness and dollar weakness.
・Intraday balance shifted to euro-yen buy 154.70, pound-yen buy 180.21, dollar-yen buy 140.36, moved to overnight positions.
・Weakest to strongest against the dollar on a intraday basis: Yen, Aussie, Pound, Euro.
・After economic data, Aussie stalls and falls.
・When the BoJ policy meeting signals a rate target operation of 1.0%, the yen tends to strengthen. After moving near the center of the intraday range, during NY time yen shorts lead, and NY close ends with yen weakness across the board.
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・US Treasuries: 5-year buys lead, then 2-year and 10-year buying, yields fall (bull steepening).
US02yr 4.861（-0.052）
US05yr 4.177（-0.067）
US10yr 3.953（-0.051）
・Japanese government bonds: yields rise further.
JP02yr -0.012（+0.030）
JP05yr 0.160（+0.069）
JP10yr 0.576（+0.138）
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■ Major economic indicators (US focus), interest rate decisions, events, news, etc.
08:30 July Tokyo metropolitan CPI (CPI, all items excluding fresh food, YoY forecast: +2.9%)
TBD BoJ monetary policy meeting (after conclusion, decision announced; forecast: unchanged with the current account balance interest rate at ▲0.10%)
15:30 Kazuo Ueda, BoJ Governor, regular press conference
10:30 4-6月 Japanese wholesale price index (PPI)
10:30 June Australian retail sales (expected: QoQ flat)
14:30 4-6月 French GDP flash estimate (expected: QoQ +0.1%)
15:45 July French CPI flash (expected: YoY +4.3%, MoM +0.2%)
21:00 July German CPI flash (expected: MoM +0.3%, YoY +6.2%)
21:30 June US PCE (core PCE) MoM +0.4% (expected)
June US personal income MoM +0.5% (expected)
June US PCE deflator YoY +3.0% (expected)
June US PCE core deflator MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.2% (expected)
23:00 July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, final 71.6 (vs 64.4 prior)
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・July Tokyo metropolitan CPI YoY -3.2% (prior -3.1%)
・July Tokyo metropolitan CPI core YoY -3.0% (prior -3.2%)
・Australia June retail sales MoM -0.8% (prior -0.8%)
・Australia 4-6月 PPI QoQ +0.5% (prior -0.7%)
・BOJ maintains a negative 0.1% interest rate on the balance of policy rates
・Bank of Japan statement
“If necessary, take additional easing without hesitation”
“Decision to modify the policy for short- and long-term rates”
“Make the 10-year JGB yield operation more flexible”
・Outlook for Economic and Price Developments (Outlook Report)
The CPI for FY2023 (excluding fresh food) for consumer prices is projected to be +2.5% (April +1.8%), for FY24 +1.9% (April +2.0%), and for FY25 +1.6% (April +1.6%).
The real GDP growth for FY2023 is projected at +1.3% (April +1.4%), for FY24 +1.2% (January +1.2%), and for FY25 +1.0% (April +1.0%).
・Operation of monetary policy (8 in favor, 1 against)
The target range for long-term interest rate fluctuations aims at approximately ±0.5%, and the policy will be operated more flexibly. For the 10-year JGB yield, unless it is clearly unlikely to be tendered, a bid at 1.0% will be conducted every business day. To form a yield curve consistent with the above market operations, the BOJ will continue large-scale government bond purchases and, for each maturity, will dynamically adjust the amount purchased and conduct bidding operations, common collateral lending operations, etc.
・BoJ Governor Ueda
“Not moving toward policy normalization = YCC revision”
“We don’t know whether YCC flexibility will reduce government bond purchases”
“We are not targeting the exchange rate”
“We are considering volatility in the forex market as one of the side effects of easing”
“To reduce financial market volatility”
・France July CPI YoY -4.3% (prior -4.5%)
・US June PCE core deflator MoM -0.2% (prior -0.3%)
・US June personal income MoM -0.3% (prior -0.5%)
・US June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) MoM +0.5% (prior +0.2%)
・US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index 71.6 (prior 64.4)
・WSJ: US recession may be years away; growth may continue longer
・WSJ: Recession pushed farther away, US GDP growth accelerates
（If there is a change in intraday balance that creates a new position, before NY close we will confirm and roll the new position into an overnight position, and settle the initial position. If a new intraday position is canceled before NY close, the initial position remains. Therefore, when a new position is created due to intraday balance changes, it will be a dual position with the initial one, and when this new position is canceled, a realization of losses or gains may occur）
■ USD/JPY
7/28 – BUY @ 140.36
7/26 – SELL @ 140.65
7/14 – BUY @ 138.57
7/6 – SELL @ 144.32
7/5 – BUY @ 144.52
(LAST @ 141.17)
Lower support 139.26, Up-move resumed confirmation point 140.00
■ EUR/USD
7/27 – SELL @ 1.1063
7/26 – BUY @ 1.1063
7/19 – SELL @ 1.1233
7/7 – BUY @ 1.0887
7/4 – SELL @ 1.0894
(LAST @ 1.1016)
Down-move resumed confirmation point 1.0983, Retracement resistance 1.1008
■ GBP/USD
7/27 – SELL @ 1.2907
7/25 – BUY @ 1.2851
7/17 – SELL @ 1.3091
7/7 – BUY @ 1.2718
7/5 – SELL @ 1.2704
(LAST @ 1.2846)
Down-move resumed confirmation point 1.2810, Retracement resistance 1.2839
■ AUD/USD
7/27 – SELL @ 0.6753
7/25 – BUY @ 0.6741
7/17 – SELL @ 0.6830
7/7 – BUY @ 0.6654
7/5 – SELL @ 0.6665
(LAST @ 0.6647)
Down-move resumed confirmation point 0.6658, Retracement resistance 0.6680
■ EUR/JPY
7/28 – BUY @ 154.70
7/27 – SELL @ 156.50
7/21 – BUY @ 156.34
7/20 – SELL @ 156.36
7/13 – BUY @ 154.11
(LAST @ 155.52)
Lower support 153.02, Up-move resumed confirmation point 154.00
■ GBP/JPY
7/28 – BUY @ 180.21
7/27 – SELL @ 181.30
7/21 – BUY @ 180.38
7/18 – SELL @ 181.17
7/13 – BUY @ 180.73
(LAST @ 181.35)
Lower support 178.31, Up-move resumed confirmation point 179.52
■ AUD/JPY
7/26 – SELL @ 95.43
7/19 – BUY @ 94.41
7/17 – SELL @ 94.86
7/13 – BUY @ 93.86
7/5 – SELL @ 96.36
(LAST @ 93.84)
Down-move resumed confirmation point 92.74, Retracement resistance 93.30
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