In one year of forward testing, +500 pips! A single-position, conservative EA "ORCA" with a maximum SL of 30 pips.
Forward testing for over a year!
A solid single-position EA "ORCA" that earns 500 pips per year
[ORCA Overview]
Currency pair: [USD/JPY]
Trading style: [Day Trading][Swing Trading]
Maximum number of positions: 1
Timeframe used: M30
Maximum stop loss: 0 (Recommended: 30 pips)
Take profit: 0 (Recommended: 50 pips)
The trading logic uses a span model and is a conventional trend-following method.
In forward testing for 1 year and 2 months, it has produced +500 pips or more, showing solid performance.
The latter half of 2017 showed a slight loss of 49 pips.
2018 was strong with +623 pips!
■ Backtest results with no deviation
In the official backtest data, the spread is shown as 2.0, but
backtests with a forward-like spread of about 0.5 pips yield results closer to actual forward performance.
The results are shown below
2010.01.04-2017.08.30
Spread 0.5
Fixed at 0.1 lots
Net profit +437,000 JPY (annual average 45,000 JPY)
Maximum drawdown -59,700 JPY
Total trades 1,225 (about 120 per year)
Average profit 5,000 JPY (50 pips)
Average loss -3,000 JPY (-30 pips)
Win rate 41%
This is the result. Although the number of trades is relatively low, it is a steady EA that yields about 400-500 pips per year.
Even with a low win rate, profits remain because the profit-to-loss ratio is 50:-30, and the amount of profit is larger.
Recommended margin is,
16.5万円 (165,000 JPY)
Expected annual return is about 27%.
Even considering forward performance, the recommended margin is 150,000 JPY and the maximum drawdown is 53,000 JPY,
so the results are almost in line with backtests.
【Annual P/L】
(The currency is 'yen'.)
Looking at annual P/L, 2014 was weak. Since 2016, it has been around 500 pips per year,
and in the most recent year of forward testing, around 500 pips were gained.
Although the number of trades isn't high, it might be suitable for portfolio management, but the logic is clear,
and with small loss pips and a single position, it is a very easy EA to handle!
