USD/JPY Dollar-Yen 2024: Shift toward Dollar selling as market sentiment changes

■Position Change Signs, Event – June 12 (Wednesday)

・ Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar weak. As European session approaches, yen weak, dollar weak. From NY to London fix, yen strong overall, dollar weak. NY close, dollar weak.

・ Asia-Pacific balance shifted to selling USD/JPY at 156.50, buying EUR at 1.0770, buying EUR/JPY at 169.40, transitioning to an overnigh position.

・ From around European session proximity, yen shorts led. With CPI, the dollar weakened broadly and U.S. rates fell rapidly. After the FOMC policy announcement, dollar bought back, and cross-yen rose, which restrained USD/JPY decline.

・ In order of strongest against the dollar: euro, pound, Australian dollar, yen (on a USD/JPY basis).

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■ Tokyo market spot volume (6/11)

3,973 (million dollars)

10-day moving average 4,072

Recent 10-day maximum 5,183 (5/30)

Recent 10-day minimum 3,110 (6/03)

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■ U.S. and Japan interest rates

・U.S. Treasuries: rates fell (bull flattening)

US02yr 4.756 (-0.084)

US05yr 4.318 (-0.104)

US10yr 4.318 (-0.088)

・Japanese government bonds: rates fell (bull flattening)

JP02yr 0.339 (-0.022)

JP05yr 0.551 (-0.034)

JP10yr 0.979 (-0.037)

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■ Current position

6/12 – SELL @ 156.50

(LAST @ 156.73)

Downside break point 156.35, return resistance 156.74

Support at 157.04, upside resume point 157.17

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■ Position changes 2024

6/07 – BUY @ 156.10

6/06 – SELL @ 155.70

6/05 – BUY @ 155.80

6/03 – SELL @ 156.80

5/31 – BUY @ 157.25

5/30 – SELL @ 157.00

5/17 – BUY @ 155.60

5/15 – SELL @ 156.30

5/06 – BUY @ 153.40

5/01 – SELL @ 156.25

4/30 – BUY @ 156.77

4/29 – SELL @ 156.36

4/05 – BUY @ 151.63

4/04 – SELL @ 151.33

4/01 – BUY @ 151.39

3/27 – SELL @ 151.35

3/12 – BUY @ 146.90

3/05 – SELL @ 150.11

3/04 – BUY @ 150.43

2/29 – SELL @ 150.55

2/21 – BUY @ 150.16

2/20 – SELL @ 150.01

2/19 – BUY @ 150.10

2/15 – SELL @ 150.48

2/07 – BUY @ 148.03

2/06 – SELL @ 148.44

2/02 – BUY @ 146.70

1/31 – SELL @ 147.41

1/30 – BUY @ 147.60

1/29 – SELL @ 147.71

1/25 – BUY @ 147.65

1/24 – SELL @ 147.95

1/15 – BUY @ 145.11

1/12 – SELL @ 145.35

1/09 – BUY @ 144.45

1/08 – SELL @ 144.63

1/02 – BUY @ 141.50