USD/JPY Dollar-Yen 2024: From Cross-Yen Decline to Stalling

■Position Change Indicator, Event - Tuesday, June 4

・Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar weak. As European time approaches, yen strengthens broadly and dollar strengthens. From NY to London fix, yen strengthens broadly and dollar strengthens. NY close, yen strengthens broadly and dollar strengthens.

・Yen-dollar balance changes: Aussie selling 0.6655, EUR/JPY selling 170.10, GBP/JPY selling 199.70, AUD/JPY selling 104.20. Cross yen declines.

・Dollar/Yen confirms intraday rebound high at 156.49. Testing below 156 continues.

・Bloomberg report: Bank of Japan may consider reducing government bond purchases as soon as this month meeting – accelerates yen buying.

・In order of strength against the dollar: yen, euro, pound, Aussie (Japanese-internal basis).

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■ Tokyo market spot volume (6/3)

3,110 (million dollars)

10-day moving average 3,619

Recent 10-day high 5,183 (5/30)

Recent 10-day low 2,551 (5/22)

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■ U.S. and Japan interest rates

・U.S. Treasuries: yields lower (bull flattener)

US02yr 4.775 (-0.037)

US05yr 4.319 (-0.061)

US10yr 4.328 (-0.064)

・Japanese government bonds: yields lower (bull flattener)

JP02yr 0.377 (-0.024)

JP05yr 0.599 (-0.031)

JP10yr 1.010 (-0.053)

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■ Current positions

6/3 – SELL @ 156.80

(LAST @ 154.88)

Lower-bound support for resumed decline: 155.29, return resistance 155.75

Support 156.87, resumed rise confirmation 157.05

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■ Position changes

5/31 – BUY @ 157.25

5/30 – SELL @ 157.00

5/17 – BUY @ 155.60

5/15 – SELL @ 156.30

5/06 – BUY @ 153.40

5/01 – SELL @ 156.25

4/30 – BUY @ 156.77

4/29 – SELL @ 156.36

4/05 – BUY @ 151.63

4/04 – SELL @ 151.33

4/01 – BUY @ 151.39

3/27 – SELL @ 151.35

3/12 – BUY @ 146.90

3/05 – SELL @ 150.11

3/04 – BUY @ 150.43

2/29 – SELL @ 150.55

2/21 – BUY @ 150.16

2/20 – SELL @ 150.01

2/19 – BUY @ 150.10

2/15 – SELL @ 150.48

2/07 – BUY @ 148.03

2/06 – SELL @ 148.44

2/02 – BUY @ 146.70

1/31 – SELL @ 147.41

1/30 – BUY @ 147.60

1/29 – SELL @ 147.71

1/25 – BUY @ 147.65

1/24 – SELL @ 147.95

1/15 – BUY @ 145.11

1/12 – SELL @ 145.35

1/09 – BUY @ 144.45

1/08 – SELL @ 144.63

1/02 – BUY @ 141.50