USD/JPY Dollar-Yen - 2024: Yen interest rate sensitivity declines, concern over intervention failure grows

■Signs of position change, event – May 22 (Wednesday)

・Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar weak. As European time approaches, yen broad weakness and dollar weakness. From New York to London fix, dollar strengthens. At the close in New York, broad dollar strength.

・RBNZ keeps policy rate at 5.50%, causing Oceania currencies to reverse higher. Although理由 unclear, after 15:00 Tokyo time, dollar-yen buys emerge, later becoming dollar selling bias with pound buying leading. In New York, dollar buying shifts, and after the FOMC minutes, broad dollar strength.

・U.S. rates: expectations for a year-end rate cut retreat. Also, after Nvidia earnings, dollar buying accelerates.

・Japanese government bonds 10-year yield rises above 1%, but interest-rate sensitivity decreases, reinforcing perceptions of intervention failure.

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■ U.S.-Japan interest rates

・U.S. Treasuries show a rising yield vibe (bear flattening)

US02yr 4.875 (+0.044)

US05yr 4.466 (+0.028)

US10yr 4.426 (+0.012)

・Japanese Government Bonds show long-term yields rising (bear steepening)

JP02yr 0.350 (+0.016)

JP05yr 0.598 (+0.027)

JP10yr 1.001 (+0.025)

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■ Current positions

5/17 – BUY @ 155.60

(LAST @ 156.80)

Support at 156.40, resuming up move target 156.95

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■ Positioning changes

5/15 – SELL @ 156.30

5/06 – BUY @ 153.40

5/01 – SELL @ 156.25

4/30 – BUY @ 156.77

4/29 – SELL @ 156.36

4/05 – BUY @ 151.63

4/04 – SELL @ 151.33

4/01 – BUY @ 151.39

3/27 – SELL @ 151.35

3/12 – BUY @ 146.90

3/05 – SELL @ 150.11

3/04 – BUY @ 150.43

2/29 – SELL @ 150.55

2/21 – BUY @ 150.16

2/20 – SELL @ 150.01

2/19 – BUY @ 150.10

2/15 – SELL @ 150.48

2/07 – BUY @ 148.03

2/06 – SELL @ 148.44

2/02 – BUY @ 146.70

1/31 – SELL @ 147.41

1/30 – BUY @ 147.60

1/29 – SELL @ 147.71

1/25 – BUY @ 147.65

1/24 – SELL @ 147.95

1/15 – BUY @ 145.11

1/12 – SELL @ 145.35

1/09 – BUY @ 144.45

1/08 – SELL @ 144.63

1/02 – BUY @ 141.50