USD/JPY Dollar/Yen – 2024: stronger link to 2-year Treasury yields

■Signals of position changes, events — May 20th (Friday)

・Tokyo morning: yen broadly weaker, dollar stronger. As European hours approach, dollar weakens. From NY to London fix, yen strengthens and dollar strengthens. NY close, yen strengthens and dollar strengthens.

・Intraday balance shifted to euro selling toward 1.0860, moving into overnight positions. Note: euro-yen selling at 169.33 was canceled.

・NY initially bought dollars, but the dollar/yen rally to 156.43 is limited; while retreating, a yen appreciation attempt occurs, rebounding from 155.84. Range-bound between selling and buying.

・Japan 2-year bond yield sensitivity increases.

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

■U.S. and Japan interest rates

・U.S. Treasuries saw yields fall (bull flattening)

US02yr 4.831 (-0.021)

US05yr 4.434 (-0.036)

US10yr 4.414 (-0.035)

・Japanese government bonds saw yields decline

JP02yr 0.334 (-0.008)

JP05yr 0.569 (+0.000)

JP10yr 0.975 (-0.001)

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

■Current position

5/17 – BUY @ 155.60

(LAST @ 156.19)

Retrenchment point for resuming decline: 154.34, returning resistance 154.80

Support at 156.11, resumption point for upside 156.28

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

■Positioning changes

5/15 – SELL @ 156.30

5/06 – BUY @ 153.40

5/01 – SELL @ 156.25

4/30 – BUY @ 156.77

4/29 – SELL @ 156.36

4/05 – BUY @ 151.63

4/04 – SELL @ 151.33

4/01 – BUY @ 151.39

3/27 – SELL @ 151.35

3/12 – BUY @ 146.90

3/05 – SELL @ 150.11

3/04 – BUY @ 150.43

2/29 – SELL @ 150.55

2/21 – BUY @ 150.16

2/20 – SELL @ 150.01

2/19 – BUY @ 150.10

2/15 – SELL @ 150.48

2/07 – BUY @ 148.03

2/06 – SELL @ 148.44

2/02 – BUY @ 146.70

1/31 – SELL @ 147.41

1/30 – BUY @ 147.60

1/29 – SELL @ 147.71

1/25 – BUY @ 147.65

1/24 – SELL @ 147.95

1/15 – BUY @ 145.11

1/12 – SELL @ 145.35

1/09 – BUY @ 144.45

1/08 – SELL @ 144.63

1/02 – BUY @ 141.50