USD/JPY dollar-yen – 2024: Cross-yen gains continue, yen weakening persists aided by rising U.S. rates

■Position Change Signs, Event - May 20 (Friday)

・Tokyo morning: yen weak, dollar weak. As European time approaches, yen weak, dollar weak. From NY to London fix, yen overall weaker, dollar stronger. NY close: yen overall weaker, dollar stronger.

・Despite rising yen rates, impact on USD/JPY is limited. From NY open, yen short-covering leads. With comments from Federal Reserve officials, US rates rise, NY close with yen broadly weaker and dollar stronger.

・Background: US regional Fed presidents’ comments from 27:00 Tokyo time, pushing US rates higher, yen broadly weaker toward NY close.

・Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

“Monetary policy is restrictive.”

“The April CPI was good news, but it is too early to judge the direction of inflation.”

“More evidence on inflation is needed to determine whether inflation will move toward 2% sustainably.”

“I am not yet convinced that inflation is headed down to 2%.”

“Inflation is expected to improve, but not rapidly.”

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■ U.S. and Japan Interest Rates

・U.S. Treasuries are up (bear steepening)

US02yr 4.852 (+0.025)

US05yr 4.470 (+0.023)

US10yr 4.449 (+0.027)

・Japanese government bonds rise (bear steepening)

JP02yr 0.346 (+0.010)

JP05yr 0.570 (+0.023)

JP10yr 0.974 (+0.022)

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■ Current Position

5/17 – BUY @ 155.60

(LAST @ 156.27)

Downside restart confirmation point 154.34, return resistance 154.80

Support 155.81, upside restart confirmation point 155.99

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■ Positioning Changes

5/15 – SELL @ 156.30

5/06 – BUY @ 153.40

5/01 – SELL @ 156.25

4/30 – BUY @ 156.77

4/29 – SELL @ 156.36

4/05 – BUY @ 151.63

4/04 – SELL @ 151.33

4/01 – BUY @ 151.39

3/27 – SELL @ 151.35

3/12 – BUY @ 146.90

3/05 – SELL @ 150.11

3/04 – BUY @ 150.43

2/29 – SELL @ 150.55

2/21 – BUY @ 150.16

2/20 – SELL @ 150.01

2/19 – BUY @ 150.10

2/15 – SELL @ 150.48

2/07 – BUY @ 148.03

2/06 – SELL @ 148.44

2/02 – BUY @ 146.70

1/31 – SELL @ 147.41

1/30 – BUY @ 147.60

1/29 – SELL @ 147.71

1/25 – BUY @ 147.65

1/24 – SELL @ 147.95

1/15 – BUY @ 145.11

1/12 – SELL @ 145.35

1/09 – BUY @ 144.45

1/08 – SELL @ 144.63

1/02 – BUY @ 141.50