MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman May.13 2024

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed down 7 points from the previous week at 38,229. The week's high was 38,863 on Tuesday the 7th. The week's low was 38,072 on Thursday the 9th. Although the weekly high exceeded the upper resistance line, the closing price fell below it and moved between the lower support line and the upper resistance line, signaling a bearish trigger. However, this closing price exceeded the Weekly Trend Indicator Pin (TIP) for the first time in six weeks. Therefore, the overall trend has been upgraded from a “downward trend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As I explain in my book Forecast 2024, there is a long-term market cycle of 17 years in the Nikkei average.

Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. This cycle is divided into two parts by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending in a “double bottom” formed by June 24, 2016 at 14,864 and February 12, 2016 at 14,865. From here, the second half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) has begun. Therefore, 2024 corresponds to the 16th year of that cycle.

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