FX Exchange Rate Forecast for May 13, 2024

Tomorrow's FX Forecast

Market Expectation

Yen	Dollar	Euro	Pound	Australian Dollar	Stocks	Gold	Crude Oil

• USD/JPY rises toward the upper half of the 155 level
• Cross yen moves are mixed
• NY Dow remains buying, rises for the 8th consecutive day
• Gold remains in demand
• Crude oil falls to the 77-dollar range in after-hours

Tomorrow's Currency Pair Forecast

Dollar/Yen 155.74 Up (1-hour chart) ↑
Forecast range 155.40–156.50

Analysis by Cyber Signal

Buy signal has appeared, indicating an uptrend.
If the buying continues, the forecast is for further gains.

Overview of the Previous Day

NY Dow up by $331, and the Nikkei Average up by 155 yen to 38,229, rising.

Dollar/Yen rose toward the upper half of the 155 range,Cross yen moves were mixed.

Results of the Previous Day

· Dow39,512.84 (+125.08 +0.32%)
· Nikkei Average38,210 (-30 -0.08%)
· Gold2,360.14 (+14.25 +0.60%)
· WTI Crude78.20 (-1.06 -1.34%)

Economic Indicators

★★★★
23:00 (US) May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index—Preliminary
Previous: 77.2 Forecast: 76.2 Result: 67.4

Tomorrow's Strategy

Market Points

△ Bullish factor: 8th straight rise of the Dow
▽ Bearish factors: none
◆ USD/JPY rising toward the upper half of the 155 range
◆ Cross yen mixed
◆ US 10-year yield rising to 4.499%
◆ Dollar crosses: AUD falling
◆ US stocks: Dow up for the 8th day
◆ European stocks up about 0.5% with continued buying
◆ Gold up by about $14
◆ Crude oil down about 1.34%
◆ No major economic indicators due
◆ Sunday Dow
◆ Nikkei futures up by 155 yen to 38,229
☆ Expecting a weak yen, strong stock market environment

Dow Jones Chart (Daily)

Nasdaq Chart (Daily)

Dow Jones steady with 8th day of gains

Last Friday the Dow kept rising, +$125 to eight days of gains.

However,Nasdaq was pressured by selling, down 0.03%slightly.

In early session, markets rose, but in the latter part some tech stocks were sold off, losing momentum.

Tesla -2.04%, Amazon -1.07%, Apple -0.82%, Alphabet -0.75% led IT/tech stock declines. Crude oil prices fell with Conoco -1.04% and Exxon Mobil -0.41%

In contrast,McDonald's +2.63%, Costco +1.05%, PepsiCo +0.97%, Walmart +0.07% supported consumer and retail sectors. Wells Fargo +0.99%, JP Morgan Chase +0.64%, Bank of America +0.46%, Citigroup +0.33% also rose among banks.

Overall, advancers 1762, decliners 2780, 59.4% of all issues declined.

Sectoral Stock Price Changes

Semiconductors+0.97%
Artificial intelligence+0.36%
Oil & Energy-0.51%
Shipping+0.41%
Military 0.00%
Cryptocurrency-2.35%

Continued Yen weakness, Dollar strength

US 10-Year Yield

USD/JPY continued to rise, pushing higher into the upper half of the 155 range. The US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index came in at 67.4, below the forecast 76.2, but the market reaction was limited.

It briefly rose to 155.91 yen, with attention on whether it could test the 156 level again. US 10-year yield rose to 4.499%, and further dollar buying is expected.

Cross yen movements are mixed, while European currencies were bought, Australian dollar and other Oceania currencies fell.Additionally, headlines that the Biden administration is preparing to impose tariffs on EVs from China weighed on sentiment.

The expectation remains for a continued environment of dollar strength and yen weakness.

Continued Gold Buying

Gold Chart (Daily)

Crude Oil WTI Chart (Daily)

Gold rose another $14 to the $2,360 level. As the Ukraine situation worsens, safe-haven demand is returning.

Attention is turning again to whether new all-time highs can be reached.

Crude oil fell by 1.34%, down to the $78 range. Even in after-hours, selling continued, sending it toward the $77 level.

However, negotiations toward a ceasefire in Gaza ended without an agreement, which could provide some support to the market.

Dollar-Yen Order Flow and Sunday Dow

Sunday Dow (5-minute Chart)

Nikkei futures rose by 155 yen in after-hours to 38,229. Sunday Dow fell slightly by 3 dollars.

Support for USD/JPY is at 155.30, with resistance at 156.00. While upside may be cautious, the down moves are met with quick buying, indicating a gradual upward trend.

USD/JPY Quote Details

Economic Indicators

None in particular