At least 30% annual return! Dramatic profits in volatile markets with 'Midnight_Koala_NZ_Plus'
The AUDNZD version of 'EA_Midnight_Koala' for late-night trading has arrived!
Differences in performance compared to the AUDCAD version, and when managing a portfolio,
we will explore the expected annual return.
【EA_Midnight_Koala_NZD Overview】
Currency pair: [AUD/NZD]
Trading style: [Scalping]
Maximum number of positions: 3
Maximum lot size: 10
Timeframe used: M5
Maximum stop loss: 100
Take profit: 8
Forward testing is about one month, but with an 80% win rate, trading 0.1 lots yields a profit of ¥16,000.
The equity curve has been steadily rising, showing a favorable progression.
【Backtest Analysis】
2005-04-01 to 2018-08-23
Fixed at 0.1 lot
Spread 1.5
Net profit +$33,381
Maximum drawdown $562
Total trades 7,947
Win rate 97%
Average winning trade $5.71
Average losing trade -$41.90
In simple termsthe annual trade count is over 500,
and the expected annual profit per 0.1 lot is $2,509.
Now, let's take a closer look by year!
Profit rose sharply from 2008 to 2009!
Here is the annual P&L
From 2008 to 2010, even at 0.1 lots, a substantial amount was earned.
Trade counts also increased with the profit amounts.
Looking at the AUDNZD weekly chart…
From late 2008 to 2009, there was a retracement after a deep pullback.
Profits are largely captured during such sharp moves.
Since 2014, a narrow-range market has continued, so profits are smaller.
In 2018, since it is still within this range, the performance is likely close to the average profit over the most recent five years.
Over the last five years, the annual average profit is $550.
During that period, the maximum drawdown is about -$400, so
the required margin per 0.1 lot is
179,000 yen
.
In that case,the annual expected profit is over 33%!
Even in the last five years, a considerable performance is expected.
【Compatibility with Midnight_Koala_AUDCAD?】
What about the portfolio effect with the already available AUDCAD version?
Red: AUDNZD (the one introduced here)
Details here
For the last five years, the AUDCAD version has higher profits.
Since the AUDCAD version has almost double the maximum drawdown, the recommended margin is higher.
Average earnings over the last five years for the two EAs are $1,434 (158,000 yen).
Recommended margin for running the two EAs is about 400,000 yen.
Profit rate is around 35% or higher.
In 2015 and 2017, profits were inversely correlated, so it is recommended for a portfolio as well!
Also, what is encouraging is that for AUDNZD, contrarian trades targeting the recent box-range market have often been effective,
but Midnight_Koala tends to perform especially in volatile markets.
This is where it really shows its strength.
The stable profits in recent years are a "minimum earning level."Isn't that important too?
Even if the market becomes turbulent in the future, it is quite possible that you could earn more in those conditions,
which is very reassuring!
