【Trajectory to Dreams_FX_6 Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20240505】

May 5th, Sunday.
　
Good morning.
　
This is Southern Kanto where you can see a clear blue sky.
It looks like it will be hot,
so I would like to take care of my health and get through the day.
　
By the way, last week due to currency intervention
the cross-yen moved violently.
　
There is a lot of chatter about the conditions for intervention,
GDP at 2%
once every six months
within 72 hours being one time
and so on, information is mixed up.
　
First of all
the above conditions apply to dollar buying
and do not apply to yen buying.
　
And, the Bank of Japan's USD assets
are currently 30 trillion yen
at 10 trillion yen per time,
therefore there still seems to be a possibility.
　
It brings back memories of Kanda’s wry smile as Finance Minister.
　　　　
　
Now, let us confirm.
The numbers are at the closing of the daily chart.
　
　　
【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart: 21st candle
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 31st candle / 13
Weekly volatility: 162 pips
Daily chart: 4th cycle, 14th candle / 14
4HC: 2nd cycle, 16th candle / 14

We interpret it as such.
　
What prompted the USD weakness is
that the Fed does not want to raise rates.
This is also a possibility to consider.
　
Technically, the daily chart has switched
and 4HC is also 2nd,
10822 seems to be the daily high.

****************************
20240505_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/MQ-miQ0ac00
*****************************


　　
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart: 17th candle
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 22nd candle / 21
Weekly volatility: 754 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 40th candle / 36
4HC 3rd cycle: 28th candle / 16LT

We interpret it as such.

It is being driven by USD/JPY,
and this week it might be influenced by EUR/USD.
I think it might be influenced by EUR/USD this week.
　
If EUR/USD shows daily highs
and USD/JPY experiences upper pressure,
EUR/JPY would decline in this scenario.
　
　　
　　　
【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 17th candle
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 19th candle / 19
Weekly volatility: 833 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 41st candle / 37
4HC 4th cycle: 65th candle / 36 LT

We interpret it as such.
　
To be frank
the intervention noise has greatly changed the scenario.
　
With HPC, a decline is also in view, but
considering policy rates,
how far will it fall?
We keep that view.
　
However, even if it rises, there is a high likelihood of a backlash,
so a downside bias is strong.
　
　　　　　
　
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart: 21st candle
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 21st candle / 21
Weekly volatility: 915 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 40th candle / 36
4HC 4th cycle: 28th candle / 13 LT

We interpret it as such.
　
USD/JPY is in a range,
GBP/USD declines,
GBP/JPY will form a bearish candle.
　
Whether that opportunity will come?
I am watching closely.
　
Because of the large swings,
holding positions continuously is
difficult to maintain.
　

　
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 15th candle
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 22nd candle / 22
Weekly volatility: 503 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 40th candle / 36
4HC 3rd cycle: 65th candle / 36

We interpret it as such.
　
If 4HC is not closed yet,
still a downside bias remains
and for Daily charts,
the latter half of HPC remains bearish.
　
The relationship between the USD and AUD
will be clearly shown,
so if the USD strengthens,
the AUD weakens.
　
　
　　
【NZD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 15th candle
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 22nd candle / 22
Weekly volatility: 459 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 11th candle / 7
4HC 1st cycle: 65th candle / 36

We interpret it as such.

Only this currency pair
has a different daily starting point,
and is considered a lagging currency.
　
Current 4HC is ongoing
and there is a possibility of new lows in the future.
　

****************************
20240505_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/MQ-miQ0ac00
*****************************
　
　

*****************************
DJI +450.02 dollars
US500 +1.0%
WTI 77.64 dollars
Nikkei 225 38,236 yen, -0.1%
　
****************************
　
 
Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872

 
【Iroha Group (168) _2】
Registration URL:
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
 
 
Noubitorei