5 Techniques to Dramatically Increase Your Decision-Making Win Rate
『Mass Psychology Trading』I am Osawa, the seller.
In response to your requests,here are five techniques to improve your win ratesummarized.
This is the fundamental mindset that underpins my own high-win-rate trading, so if any of these can be adopted, please use them as a reference.
Even just by practicing what is described here, you should become a trader at a higher level.
The five discretionary techniques introduced here plus a sixth is explained in the materials you downloaded for the free product, so stay tuned!
【Technique 1】Stick to trend following
The market always moves as shown in the diagram below.
Unless a major economic indicator is released, it will not suddenly shift from an uptrend to a downtrend; there are always signs or warnings.
And in most of these phases, the market “reverses after forming a range.”
Whether you know this or not is personally extremely important.
For example, in an uptrend, typically there are about three waves up, then a range forms, and from there it turns to a downtrend.
There are cases where the price continues to rise (fall) without forming a range, moving up (down) from the range.
So where should individual traders aim to win in FX? Precisely at the points where a trend is established.
A trend can be restated as “direction.”
To give another hint, if you can target from the moment a trend begins, you can also earn pips.
When the market makes three big waves up (or down) and climbs, you can increase your win rate by targeting the points where those waves formed with a trend-following approach.
Now, in order to do that...
We, as individual traders, should look at the charts from above and figure out what to look for, which is explained concretely in the “Mass Psychology Trading.”
Some losing traders try to draw lines within a range and trade within it.
Sell when the price hits the top of the range, buy when it hits the bottom, i.e., contra-trend trading.
However, ranges will eventually be broken; contra-trend trading risks buying at highs and selling at lows.
In FX, there are even stories that simply following the trend yields about 60% win rate, so first try sticking to the trend!
【Technique 2】Do not look at the short-term chart after entering
As explained in “Mass Psychology Trading,” the common trait of traders who make large sums is that they “take a few pips with a large lot.”
However, many traders cannot bring themselves to trade with a large lot.
They understand it in their minds, but unless it’s a gambling situation, they cannot increase the lot size.
Why is that? Because they lack confidence in their own trading.
Lacking conviction in their trades prevents them from taking on a large lot.
Lack of confidence not only prevents larger position sizing but also invites poor risk-reward trades.
In other words, after entering, they get nervous, lock in profits too early because the gains aren’t substantial yet.
This leads to missing out on profits that could have been captured, and ending up losing more when the trade moves against them.
A common tendency of unconfident traders is to watch the short-term chart after entry and get nervous continuously.
For example, even when trading on a 15-minute chart, they watch the 5-minute or 1-minute chart, fear a small counter-move, and exit with a loss, or exit too early after a small gain.
To increase win rate, you should stop checking the short-term chart immediately after entry.
In FX, it is inevitable to carry some unrealized loss. Checking it at the short-term level will only exhaust you mentally.
If you entered on the 15-minute chart with a solid basis and full confidence, do not switch to the short-term chart; instead, stay focused on the 15-minute chart and extend your position to where you expect it to go.
【Technique 3】Be cautious with entries when the 1-hour candle closes
The London market opens at 16:00 Japan time, and New York market opens at 21:00. (Disregard daylight saving concepts.)
This is known to every FX trader.
For example, when the London market opens at 16:00, currency strength shifts from Tokyo time, and charts often move in completely different ways.
The New York market open time also matters, though not as much as London, but it’s still worth paying attention to.
Therefore, as a general rule, avoid entering right at 16:00 or 21:00.
However, there are other times I personally think should be watched carefully as well.
For example, precise times like 18:00 or 20:00, on the exact “00 minutes.”
Why should entries around the 00-minute mark be watched? Because it is the time when the 1-hour chart forms.
Many traders look at the 1-hour chart, and institutional investors as well. In other words, it is widely watched by traders around the world.
Thus, similar to market open, the price can move opposite to the previous direction, so be especially cautious at this timing.
If a perfect opportunity comes exactly at a 00-minute mark, consider exiting at cost if movement is unexpected while entering.
【Technique 4】Do not try to recover losses
Do you know the common pattern of traders who suffer big losses or blow up their accounts?
1. “Steadily increasing profits with small steps!”
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2. “Oh no, I lost! I’m pissed!!”
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3. “Okay, I’ll recover it!”
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4. “Oh no, another loss… next time I’ll raise the lot!”
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5. “Seriously? Do I go against the trend here?! This hurts too much…”
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6. “I have little money left… let’s go all-in, a gamble!!”
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7. Account blown
There are various degrees of this pattern, but it generally looks like this.
I know this well because, about a year after I started FX, I repeated trades like this myself.
To break free from the losing trader routine, do not try to recover losses no matter what.
When you lose, you are emotional, and the bigger the loss, the more unsettled you become.
Trading calmly at such times is nearly impossible unless you are a genius.
So, admit the loss for that day and plan to recover it the next day or later.
The idea of recovery itself is delicate; it’s best to accept the loss for that day and forget it.
And then, in the days that follow, simply repeat the process of “finding opportunities” as a daily, calm task.
The stronger your desire to earn, the more you’ll feel frustrated and want to recover; my breakthrough came when I limited myself to one trade per day.
Since adopting this personal rule, the speed at which money grows seems to have changed significantly.
I am not saying one trade per day is mandatory, but it has proven to contain opportunities more strictly and has various benefits.
【Technique 5】Do not trade where you don’t understand
“From here, which way will it move, up or down?”
Even the world’s top traders cannot know in every situation.
We don’t know in places where we don’t understand, but people tend to wrongly assume that top traders can forecast every market condition.
However, that is impossible.
If there are FX YouTubers or instructors who claim they can predict moves in any scenario, that is just position-taking talk.
Even traders earning tens of millions or hundreds of millions in FX cannot predict most market moves.
What I am trying to say is that the single most effective way to increase win rate is toonly trade where you can predict.
Trading in situations where you cannot predict or jumping into moves without any forecast is simply gambling.
To raise win rate, stick to trades you can predict and eliminate gambling mindset.
※6th technique please refer to the free material download →Download here
