MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Apr.30 2024

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei 225 closed at 37,934, up 866 points from the previous week. The week's low was 37,052 on Monday the 22nd. The week's high was 38,460 on Wednesday the 24th. Although the weekly high approached the upper resistance line, it did not exceed it. The closing price for the week remained between the weekly support line and the upper resistance line, so the tone was neutral, albeit mildly weak. In fact, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for four consecutive weeks. Therefore, the underlying trend remains in a “downtrend” state.

2. Cycles

As explained even in my book “Forecast 2024,” there is a long-term market cycle of 17 years in the Nikkei stock average.

Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. This cycle is divided into two 8.33-year halves, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” between June 24, 2016, at 14,864 and February 12, 2016, at 14,865. From here, the second half (the 2nd to 8.33-year cycle) has begun. Therefore, 2024 corresponds to the 16th year of that cycle.

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