Even though a rate hike is scheduled by the FOMC, is the focus on Europe?! ~ Schedule and points of interest for the week of September 24 ~

◎ This Week's Highlights

1)UK vs Europe

Last weekend, the EU summit ended in a major upheaval. The pound fell by about 200 pips... This week, interest remains high, and statements related to Brexit negotiations should be watched closely.

↓↓↓ A summary of the pound decline is below ↓↓↓

Prime Minister May makes a big swing!! Assertive remarks on Brexit negotiations!!

2)Trade negotiations centered on the United States

China-U.S. trade talks enter the third phase, with a fourth phase planned. Yet Chinese stock prices remain solid. Regarding Europe, President Trump had softened but is scheduling further talks. Regarding NAFTA renegotiation, Mexico has reached an agreement. Canada has not. Whether NAFTA renegotiations will be settled or become a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Mexico may be the focal point this week. And Japan. The U.S. has launched trade actions against many countries, but now Japan is being mentioned as the next target. It remains to be seen how the content of these trade talks affects stock prices.

3)U.S. FOMC

This week includes the FOMC meeting, and a rate hike is expected. Market attention is not only on the number of hikes this year but also on the pace of rate hikes next year. There is chatter that next year may see two hikes, and that rate hikes could start to plateau. Pay attention to the statement, the dot plot, and the press conference.

4)Turkey and Emerging Market Currencies Crisis

Although crises in Turkey and other emerging market currencies have calmed, if the U.S. rates rise at the FOMC and long-term yields increase, there could be renewed capital inflows to the United States. Emerging market currency crises can impact other countries, so this is something to watch closely.

5)Europe's Fiscal Problems

Italy's budget proposal will be announced. It is still in draft form, so not final, but all eyes are on whether the EU will accept it. Additionally, due to Italy halting migrant inflows, migrants are heading to Spain. Spain is now facing a large number of migrants, which is again stressing public finances. Also noteworthy is Greece, which has exited IMF support. Europe’s banks with Turkish debt face risk as Turkey remains in a fragile situation. Fiscal problems can fuel the rise of populist parties and contribute to economic stagnation. This warrants caution.

◎ This Week's Event Schedule

9/23 (Sunday)

UK Labour Party Conference
U.S.-Japan Trade Talks (FFR)

9/24 (Monday)

UK Labour Party Conference

21:30 CAD Wholesale Trade
22:00 EUR Draghi ECB President Remarks
22:00 MXN Mexico CPI

9/25 (Tuesday)

UK Labour Party Conference
U.S.-EU Trade Talks

02:00 USD 2-year Bond Auction
08:50 JPY Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting (7/31)
14:30 JPY Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, Remarks
17:10 EURPraet, ECB Executive Board Member Remarks
17:30 EUR Costa, Governor of Banco de Portugal Remarks
17:40 GBPBrihah External BOE Director Remarks
23:00 USD U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

9/26 (Wednesday)

UK Labour Party Conference

02:00 USD 5-year Bond Auction
07:45 NZD Trade Balance
20:00 CZK Czech Policy Rate Announcement
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

9/27 (Thursday)

Italy Budget Submission

03:00 USDFOMC Policy Rate and Statement Release
03:30 USDPowell, Fed Chair, Press Conference
06:00 NZDPolicy Rate and Statement Release

17:10 EURECB Monthly Report
18:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
20:45 GBPHaldon, BOE Chief Economist Remarks
21:00 EUR Germany HICP
21:30 USD Durable Goods OrdersGDP (Revision)
23:00 GBPCarney, BOE Governor Remarks

9/28 (Friday)

01:30 USD Kaplan, Dallas Fed President Remarks
02:00 USD 7-year Bond Auction
02:05 EURPraet, ECB Executive Board Member Remarks
06:45 CADPoloz, BoC Governor Remarks
07:45 NZD Housing Permits
08:50 JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI





17:30 GBPUK GDP



21:30 CADCanada GDP

22:20 GBPLansdown, BOE Deputy Governor Remarks

9/29 (Saturday)

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

05:45 USDWilliams, President of the New York Fed Remarks

UK Conservative Party Conference (Sept 30 – Oct 3)