Trump former president's plan.
Hello, this is Kotsume-kko.
Lately, earthquakes have been occurring here and there in Japan, and the earthquake in Taiwan this time is also worrying in terms of damage potential.
Now, here is news that Kotsume-kko is curious about.
Below is a quote from Yahoo News
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Trump’s tariff proposal, likely to put pressure on U.S. financial authorities to raise rates if implemented
If President Trump’s proposed tariffs are implemented, inflation would exceed the Federal Reserve’s target by a wide margin, and there would be a high likelihood of upward pressure on interest rates, according to a Bloomberg Economics (BE) analysis in a report.
Trump, who has secured the Republican nomination for the November presidential election, has indicated plans to impose 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% on imports from other countries/regions.
Although many questions remain about whether Trump will actually implement this plan, BE fed the numbers proposed by Trump into a U.S. economic model and simulated the effects. The result shows that if these tariffs are introduced, U.S. economic growth would be damaged and Americans’ cost of living would rise.
According to this simulation, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the U.S. authorities monitor for inflation, would rise by up to 3.7% year over year by the end of the year, well above the 2% target. According to a Bloomberg economist survey, the expected average inflation rate for 2025 is 2.1%.
In this simulation, consumer prices would be pushed up by 2.5% over two years, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would fall by 0.5%. As a result, U.S. authorities may be forced to choose between raising rates to curb inflation or cutting rates to support economic growth.
However, uncertainty in the forecast is high. One of the co-authors of the report, BE’s Chief Economist Tom Orlik, commented, “Many factors are entangled, and since this level of tariffs is unprecedented, predicting the impact is difficult,” but added, “We believe the unusually high tariffs would have extraordinary effects, and our simulation results highlight these risks.”
Trump has waged a trade war with China during his presidency, but a study by the U.S. International Trade Commission, released last year, indicated that the inflation impact of the up to 25% additional tariffs on imports from China was limited. However, the tariffs Mr. Trump now proposes are far higher than before.
…That’s what it was.
The presidential election is something to watch, isn’t it.
Our thoughts go out to the people of Taiwan.
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