What will happen!? U.S. rate cuts

On March 21, 2024 Japan time, the U.S. policy rate announcement and Fed Chair Powell's regular press conference were held.

U.S. FOMC decides to hold the policy rate!

[FOMC Overview]

・Expect three rate hikes this year, kept unchanged.

・Regarding rate cuts in 2025, three cuts are projected, down from four as of last December.

・The first rate cut is likely to occur at some point during the year. (Market expectations are May or June)

・Regarding the balance sheet, the plan to continue shrinking by up to $95 billion per month (about ¥14.4 trillion) was reiterated.

・Regarding the balance sheet, it was noted that reducing the pace of shrinking to a "much sooner" pace would be appropriate.

・Forecasts for inflation and economic growth for 2024 also changed. Core inflation was raised to 2.6% from the previous forecast of 2.4%.

・Growth was raised to 2.1% from the previous forecast of 1.4%.

・For 2024, the unemployment rate was lowered slightly to 4.0% from the previous forecast (4.1%).

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