This week, three tail risks that could push USD higher and JPY lower?!

Currently, the dollar-yen market is moving based on three scenarios: the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy changes, the United States keeping rates unchanged, and the passage of a stopgap budget. If even one of these scenarios collapses, it appears not to have priced in tail risks that could push the dollar higher and the yen weaker beyond expectations.(Hereafter, the BOJ)monetary policy changes, the U.S. rate hold, and the passage of a stopgap budget are the three scenarios.3We will explain the three tail risks.