Medium- to long-term moving averages are all trending upward and line up in order from荒野浩の『テクニカル・ルームから』

Delivery date: 2016/11/21 07:36

Here we treat the 3-month (60-day) line up to the 200-day line as mid- to long-term moving averages. As of 11/18, including the short-term moving averages below, all moving averages are moving upward and are arranged from short to long term in order.
As the mid- to long-term moving averages cross sequentially over a 2-month period, the order is completed
by 9/21, and the mid- to long-term moving averages are no longer in the same arrangement as before,
with the 200-day line
to the 3-month line moving from long to short in reverse order. After that, the 3-month line first

completed clearing the mid- to long-term moving averages one after another, and last weekendthe 6-month line surpassed the 200-day line, creating a sequential order.
　　　　　　 However, until mid-September, the moving averages were in the opposite order of the price, and the longer moving averages were holding down the price,

　 so the market was in a “reversal" state.

From a “selling on rallies” to

a “buying on dips”, the moving averages were arranged in reverse order until mid-September,
with the longer moving averages suppressing the stock price and the market trend was “selling on rallies.”

However, as all moving averages began to turn upward and align in order, the market’s trend is believed to have shifted to a view of
a bias toward “buying on dips.”


In the short term, the pace of yen weakness and stock price gains was rapid,
so there is concern about a possible pullback, but in the mid to long term,
the price range that had held since the start of the year has been broken out of,
and the basis for stock price rises is becoming more stable.