MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Mar.11 2024

1. Review

The Nikkei 225 average closed last week at 39,688, down 221 points from the previous week. The week's high was on Thursday the 7th at 40,472. The week's low was also on Thursday the 7th at 39,518. Although the weekly high exceeded the upper resistance line, it fell back within the day. At the week’s close, it moved between the weekly lower support line and the upper resistance line, signaling a bearish trigger. However, the bullish streak remains likely to continue. Indeed, the weekly close exceeded the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for 11 consecutive weeks, so the underlying trend remains in an “upward trend” state.

2. Cycles

As explained in this month’s Forecast 2024, the Nikkei 225 has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. Its starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. 2024 is the 16th year of that cycle. This cycle is divided into two parts by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and at 14,865 on February 12 of the same year, forming a “double bottom.” The second half (the 2nd—8.33 year cycle) has begun.

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