4/30 (Tue) The win rate of EA is inherently determined by its type.
EA developer Reiwa no Double-E is here.
When you are about to purchase an EA,
everyone“win rate”may be on your mind.
However,
Choosing an EA by win rate is actually a big mistake.
The win rate of an EA is naturally determined by the type of EA.
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For example
As the performance of the EA improves,
the win rate naturally settles as follows.
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Scalping and counter-trend
(large losses, small gains)
Win rate…around 70%
Average win:lLoss = 1:2
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Trend following and swing
Win rate: around 40%
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Anomaly (scheduled trading)
Win rate…in the 50% range
Average win:loss = 1:1 (slightly more wins)
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By combining these win rates with average wins and losses,
the profit and loss become positive in terms of net points.
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Therefore,
in order to achieve good performance,
it is impossible to raise win rate due to design constraints.
Scalping and counter-trend
entering at precise, edge-driven timings,
tend to have win rates around 70%,
trend-following and swing
aim to profit from longer-lasting trends,
tend to have win rates in the 40% range,
anomaly (scheduled trading) is
different from the above and enters at about 50%-50%,
so the win rate tends to be in the 50% range as a principle.
From my experience so far,
even when win rate is close to 70% and the average win is larger,
the number of trades in a given period remains small,
and there is a very high likelihood of over-optimization.
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By the way
there are EAs in a rising forward curve even with extremely low win rates.
Everything loses but wins [USD/JPY version]
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Well then!
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【Reiwa no Double-E EAS Listing】
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/users/112481/products
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【Reiwa no Double-E Series Articles】
■EA for Beginners
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/1700
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“How to calculate EA risk management”
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/64703
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/64738
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/65619
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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/1701
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/64723
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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/610
【Reiwa no Double-E’s Beliefs】
Develop EAs with a principled approach,
to win the trust of more people,
maintain a lifelong WIN-WIN relationship,
and aim to revitalize the EA market and improve literacy.
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