Dr. Neko's "nearly 100% win rate" morning scalping 'Moni_Sca_USDJPY'
Dr. Neko's "nearly 100% win rate" morning scalping!
Moni_Sca_USDJPY
Overview
Currency pair: [USD/JPY]
Trading style: [Scalping]
Maximum positions: 3
Timeframe used: M5
Maximum stop loss: 200 pips
Take profit: 15 pips
Targeting the early morning hours around 6:00–8:00 AM Japan Time,
This is an early-morning scalping type, already listed by me,
Differences from Scal_USDJPY_Morning_Edition include:
Scal_USDJPY_Morning_Edition
- Entry time: approximately 23:00–01:00 (server time)
- Feature: high-frequency entry-oriented (approximately PF 2.4)
Moni_Sca_USDJPY
- Entry time: around 0:00–2:00 (server time)
- Feature: win-rate oriented (approximately PF 5.0)
That is all.
Most notably,the high win rate and profitability backed by PF5!!
There are times when losses can be fairly large, though,
there are years with a 100% win rate across the year as well.
Let's verify recommended margin and expected annual return from backtests.
【Backtest Analysis】
2005.01.10-2018.07.24
That was the result.
【Monthly P/L】
I only enter where there's a chance to win, so trading frequency is low; some months have no entries at all.
【Yearly P/L】
2008 stands out, but
In the last five years,the annual profit per 0.1 lot is $600,
in the last 10 years, it was $811.
Recommended margin per 0.1 lot is
(450*3) + (558*2) = 2,466 (USD)
At 1 USD = 110 JPY, about 270,000 yen is required.
If you have an account of 1,000,000 yen, 0.3–0.4 lots would be optimal.
In that case,the annual expected return is about 24%–32%.
How often does drawdown occur?
In backtests, out of 163 months, about 11 months were negative.
This is about once per year.
Looking at monthly P/L, June seems to have a relatively higher tendency to losses.
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