After summer vacation, a teaser full of important indicators! Can a trend be formed!? AUD, GBP, EUR ~

◎ This Week's Economic Indicators Schedule

9/3 (Monday)

Canada and the United States are out (Labor Day)

07:30　AUD Manufacturing PMI
10:30　AUD Retail Sales
10:45　CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
15:30　SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
16:00　TRY Turkey CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:45　EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
16:50　EUR France Manufacturing PMI
16:55　EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
17:00　EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
17:30　GBP Manufacturing PMI

9/4 (Tuesday)

03:30　USD Evans–Chicago Fed President speaks
13:30　AUD Policy Rate and Statement Release
16:15　CHF Swiss CPI (Consumer Price Index)
17:30　GBP Construction PMI
18:30　AUD Lowe RBA Governor speaks
21:15　GBP Carney BOE Governor speaks
21:15　GBP Holden Chief Economist speaks
21:15　GBP Tennreylo MPC external member speaks
21:15　GBP Saunders MPC external member speaks
22:45　USD Manufacturing PMI
23:00　USD ISM Manufacturing Index
23:30　USD Evans–Chicago Fed President speaks

9/5 (Wednesday)

10:30　AUD Quarterly GDP (Q2)
10:45　CNY Caixin Services PMI
15:30　SEK Sweden Services PMI
16:45　EUR Italy Services PMI
16:50　EUR France Services PMI
16:55　EUR Germany Services PMI
17:30　GBP Services PMI
21:30　USD Trade Balance
21:30　CAD Trade Balance
23:00　CAD Bank of Canada Policy Rate and Statement Release

9/6 (Thursday)

04:00　USD Williams – New York Fed President speaks
05:00　USD Kascharesi – Minneapolis Fed President speaks
07:30　USD Boastic – Atlanta Fed President speaks
10:30　AUD Trade Balance
10:30　JPY Katagoka – BOJ Governor’s Adviser speaks
14:45　CHF Switzerland GDP
16:30　SEK Sweden Policy Rate Release
21:15　USD ADP Employment Report
21:30　CAD Construction Permits
23:00　USD Durable Goods Orders
23:00　USD Williams – New York Fed President speaks
23:00　USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

9/7 (Friday)

Eurozone Finance Ministers' Meeting

00:00　USD Crude Oil Inventories
03:30　CAD Wilkinson – BOC Deputy Governor speaks
10:30　AUD Housing Loans



18:00　EUR Eurozone GDP
21:30　USD NFP Employment Report Average Hourly Earnings・ Unemployment Rate
21:30　CAD Canada Employment and Unemployment Rate

9/8 (Saturday)

01:45　USD Kaplan – Dallas Fed President speaks
02:00　USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

9/9 (Sunday)

Sweden General Election

◎ This Week's Highlights

1) After summer break, markets restart in earnest toward year-end

In Europe and the U.S., many people return from summer vacation to the markets. The United States and Canada resume in earnest after Labor Day (Tuesday). The flow may change from before, and toward year-end, trends may form in some cases, so this could be a week to watch closely.

2) AUD under pressure to find a bottom

The AUD finished last week with the last price near a support line. The trend may be downwards. From here, attention will be on whether support breaks. Also, this week is a notable one for AUD. The indicators will come daily. Details are summarized below for reference.

This Week: AUD Week!? Explaining AUD Decline

3) Will Canada surprise with a rate hike?

Last week, Canada drew attention. NAFTA negotiations expected to progress and a technical breakout above the triangle. However, near NY close there were reports of no agreement, and negotiations may continue but not in time for Congress, effectively a breakdown. Also, crosses saw risk-off with the yen strengthening. This week Canada will announce policy rate. In the last meeting a rate hike was made, and historically there have been two consecutive rate hikes by BoE, so a hike this time cannot be ruled out. The CPI released previously indicates the BOC’s price target ceiling at 3%. While officials said inflation is temporary, markets may hope for a surprise rate hike.

NAFTA renegotiation near completion! Canadian dollar rise and future prospects

Canadian dollar rise! USD/JPY approaching triangle breakout?!

4) Progress in Brexit negotiations and May administration

Last week, there was a sudden expectation of Brexit deal. The pound surged! The current pound has already priced in negatives, and positive news causes sharp reactions. After last week's hopeful remarks, there were cooling statements, yet markets did not react much. This week also, watch for statements on Brexit progress (positive factors).

Also, UK party conference is at end of September. Because no elections can occur during the conference, to dethrone May, a call for resignation (no-confidence vote) must be submitted by this or next week. If anything, this week is most likely. See below for last week’s pound movement.

Pound soared!! Explanation of Pound rise due to Varni Brexiteer remarks

5) Will the euro fall? Or is a rebound coming?

Last week the euro rose, but faced strong resistance at "1.1750" and fell again. However, could this be a rebound? In the last three months, is it returning to the range?　 The euro’s direction is in focus! Also, progress in Brexit negotiations affects the euro. Also note countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain with fiscal and refugee concerns; potential ignition points exist. The euro has many negative factors, so if any trigger occurs, a chain reaction is likely. Keep an eye on the euro. For negative drivers, see below.

Will the euro fall? Rise? – The bifurcation point euro negative factors

6) Turkish Lira and other EM currencies

Last week, the lira continued to weaken, approaching the lows touched during the Turkish shock. Turkey responded with a measure at the end of the week: Tax on foreign currency deposits, tax incentives for lira-denominated deposits, a cunning move. This led to people converting dollars and euros to lira deposits, causing a lira rally, but it did not last for long. This week Turkey's CPI data will be released. If inflation rises, further declines in the lira could occur.

The fall of the Turkish lira is affecting other EM currencies as well. Currencies in Brazil, India, South Africa, Russia, Argentina have continued to fall. Argentina’s policy rate was raised to 60%! from 45% to 60%. Yet the declines persist.

Turkish Lira Crash! Turkey Shock on August 10, 2018 – Summary

Further Turkey Shock Summary. The Turkey problem is not just Turkey’s!

This week appears to be busy with many economic indicators. Stay calm, remain composed, do not rush into movements, and stay steady. At the start of the month, adopt cautious positions and trading strategies. Thank you for your continued support this week as well.