When整理 the relationship between "トレンド" and "サポレジ" ...
The Support/Resistance conversion has the effect of being cautious, like tapping on a bridge before crossing.
“I broke through the resistance line, but will it really continue to rise as is? I don’t fully trust it yet, so
let me check whether the previously resistance line will turn into support in the future.” This is the essence of a Support/Resistance conversion.
In Dow Theory, it is said that “the trend continues until there are clear signs of a reversal.”
What influences the four-hour trend are the daily and weekly supports and resistances in higher timeframes.
For example, imagine a situation where a stable upward trend is forming on the four-hour chart,
and a change in support and resistance is observed on the longer daily chart.
In such a case,
it becomes important to consider whether the price will temporarily drop when it reaches the daily support/resistance line,
and whether this drop could lead to a change in support/resistance and a trend reversal.
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In this situation, identifying the daily support/resistance line and
considering whether the price might temporarily fall,
and whether this decline could connect to a change in support/resistance and a trend reversal
is important.
By recognizing strong support or resistance at key turning points in the trend,
and supports/resistances formed on higher timeframes with longer horizons,
one can judge whether the trend will continue
or if a reversal could occur at what point.
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Do not underestimate a single horizontal line.
A horizontal line where past highs and lows align unusually along one line can exert a powerful influence on the trend.
Being aware of support and resistance reduces “useless trading points.”
FX beginners often increase trades with the hope of earning more from wins,
or become deeply absorbed in trades to “recover losses,”
which often leads to losing all capital.
By trading with awareness of support and resistance reversals,
your number of trades naturally decreases, enabling you to escape excessive trading and dependence on trading.
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This is because support/resistance reversals account for less than 20% of overall price movements.
Breaks of resistance or support occur frequently, but most are only small price breaches in the end,
and many end up as deceiving moves, causing a decline in win rate.
Such actions as checking whether a previous resistance line becomes support are rarely seen on charts covering four hours or more.
Because this requires deep market insight. That is why
the rule “Trade only at support and resistance turns”
should be strictly followed to avoid unnecessary trades and
to target only high-probability trade points.
From my more than 20 years of FX trading experience,
the market movement can be broadly divided into
10% of time for favorable buying zones
10% of time for favorable selling zones
80% of time for zones where trading should be avoided
. In reality, about 80% of market moves can be said to be a moment to “stay out of trades.”
In particular, price movements near ranges where past highs or lows form obvious supports or resistances should be ignored in general.
By doing so, you avoid being misled by small price changes within a range and reduce the risk of failure. Especially beginners,
simply following this rule can significantly improve your win rate.
A range market refers to unstable price action when investors are unsure whether prices will rise or fall.
In this situation, the probability of the rate going up or down is about 50%. When the win rate is 50%, according to Balsara's theory,
capital will rapidly shrink.
Even when prices are repeatedly rising or falling sharply, predicting when the trend will end and reverse is difficult,
and trying to ride such moves carries a risk of large losses.
Therefore, in such cases, it is wise to wait and observe.
Of course, there is also potential for large profits if you jump into the market blindly,
so using methods that take advantage of sudden price movements after a range break cannot be said to always be invalid.
However, this is a personal trading style choice.
I am cautious and take my time waiting for support and resistance reversals.