Which is more important, backtesting or forward testing?

EA developer Reiwa no daburu II is.

The topic this time is

「Which is more important, backtest or forward test?」.

“If you’re not winning on forward, it’s meaningless!”

you might hear such voices, but

if,

your EA is winning,

“that’s just a coincidence, and in the future it may not win as much”

how about if you understood that?

Or rather,

What has been the case so far?

When you ran what you thought was a so-called “holy grail EA,”

did you ever have experiences where it didn’t go well?

Then,

「Forward performance should be backed by backtest performance」

how about that?

Indeed, EA doesn’t make sense unless it wins on forward.

However,

whether the wins are “coincidental” or “as expected” can largely be judged from the backtest.

This will be explained in detail later in an article,

in rough terms, aspects such as recovery factor, spread settings, expected profit,

whether it operates on open price or not, and other items to look at.

Additionally,

I always present backtest periods of at least 10 years.

This is because I want to test across as many market environments as possible.

In contrast,

forward periods are rarely that long, around 10 years or less.

If so,

the forward period

means you have not experienced many market environments.

In FX, there are various market environments and chart patterns.

Among them, long-duration backtests are valuable because

you can understand the EA’s performance and the forward’s reproducibility.

That is,

the method of evaluating backtests becomes important.

The evaluation method of backtests will also be addressed from various perspectives in the future articles.

Well then!

【Reiwa no daburu II EA Listing】

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/users/112481/products

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【Reiwa no daburu II’s serialized articles】

■EA Beginner Course

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/1700

■No Sugarcoating! Gogojungle's Issue Proposals!

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/1701

■Daburu II: FX Varied Tales

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/series/610

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【Reiwa no daburu II’s Beliefs】

Develop EA with a straightforward approach,

gain the appreciation of more people,

and maintain a long-lasting WIN-WIN relationship

to revitalize the EA market and improve literacy.

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