Economic Indicators Schedule and Highlights for the Week of August 27, 2018!
◎ This Week's Economic Indicator Schedule
Sun, Aug 26
Jackson Hole Symposium (Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
01:25 CADPoloz BOC Governor speaks
Mon, Aug 27
London market closed
22:00 MXN Mexico Trade Balance
Tue, Aug 28
02:00 USD 2-year note auction
15:45 EUR France Consumer Confidence Index
16:30 SEK Sweden Retail Sales
20:00 EURPlaten ECB Executive Board member speaks
21:30 USDTrade Balance
23:00 USD Consumer Confidence
Wed, Aug 29
02:00 USD 5-year note auction
15:00 EUR Germany Consumer Confidence
15:45 EUR France GDP
16:00 TRY Turkey Trade Balance
21:30 USDUS GDP
21:30 CADCanada Current Account
23:30 USD Crude Inventories
Thu, Aug 30
Turkey holiday (Victory Day)
02:00 USD 7-year note auction
07:45 NZDBuilding Permits
10:30 AUDBuilding Permits
15:00 NOK Norway Retail Sales
16:00 EUR Spain CPI (Consumer Price Index)
16:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate
18:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
21:00 EUR Germany CPI
21:30 USDPCE Deflator
21:30 CADCanada GDP
Fri, Aug 31
08:01 GBP Consumer Confidence
10:00 CNY China Manufacturing PMI
15:45 EUR France CPI
16:00 CZK Czech GDP
17:00 NOK Norway Unemployment Rate
18:00 EUR Italy CPI
18:00 EUREuro Area CPI
18:00 EUR Euro Area Unemployment
19:00 EUR Italy GDP
23:00 USDUniversity of Michigan Consumer Confidence
Sat, Sep 1
02:00 EURDraghi/ECB Vice President's remarks
02:00 USD Becker Hughes rig count
07:30 AUD Australia Manufacturing PMI
◎ This Week's Highlights
1)Jackson Hole Symposium
Held from the 23rd to 25th, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole.
The main focus was Chair Powell's speech on the 24th.
Different analysts interpreted the speech differently.
Personally, I felt it leaned dovish.
However, the symposium runs through the 25th.
Poloz's remarksand other key figures' speeches will also come over the weekend.
At the start of next week, the market will likelyfactor in the weekend Jackson Hole Symposium.
Be careful at market opens on Monday.
2)NAFTA renegotiation
There is a temperature difference between the US side and the Mexico/Canada side, but signs that talks may be nearing an end seem to be emerging.
Depending on the contents, the conclusion of negotiations could be a positive factor.
3)US-China trade war
Last Friday the 23rd, both sides announced new tariffs totaling about $16 billion in either direction.
It is at deputy-level talks, but trade negotiations have resumed.
This week too headlines on US-China relations and trade will draw attention.
(On the 28th, US Trade Balance will be released)
4)Turkey market closed for Eid al-Adha
The Turkish lira crashed a couple weeks ago (Turkish Shock).
Last week Turkey was closed for Eid al-Adha..
Turkey-US relations have not improved.
Also, Turkey's issues affect Europe.
This week too, Fokus on Turkey vs. US developments.
※ Turkey Shock related page
Turkish Lira Crash! 2018-08-10 Turkey Shock? Summary
Continued: Turkey Shock Summary. Turkey problem won't be resolved by Turkey alone!!
5)Emerging Market Long-Term Yields
Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil – emerging market currencies continue to fall.
Long-term yields have risen significantlyas well.
This week too emerging market currencies could plunge, so caution.
A decline in emerging market currencies could be a risk-off factor, impacting cross yen/cross franc and other pairs.
I will monitor emerging market currencies and long-term yields closely.
6)Australia's new government
Australia held a party leadership vote on the 21st.
Prime Minister Turnbull was narrowly re-elected.
However, ministers resigned one after another after the re-election, leading to turmoil in the Turnbull government.
AUD dropped sharply.
On the 24th a second party leadership vote was held, Turnbull resigned.
The new prime minister is Morrison, a former finance minister.
With the new PM's appointment, the AUD rebounded, but the Morrison administration formation remains a focal point this week.
7)European refugee and fiscal issues
Europe continues to grapple with refugee issues.
Greece,, are facing major refugee reception challenges.
Taking in refugees adversely affects public finances.
Many are already fiscally strained countries, fiscal concerns are prominent.
8)Brexit negotiations progress and potential no-deal
The UK plans to leave Europe next March, but negotiations are not settled yet.
Concerns about no-deal Brexit are rising in Europe and the UK.
This week also expect headlines on Brexit negotiation progress.
Also, if no-deal Brexit occurs, impacts are being reported.Beginnings of coverage on no-deal Brexit effects are appearing.
Keep an eye on Brexit-related headlines.
9)Resurgence of North Korea-US issues
After a period of calm, North Korea-US tensions
President Trump, via Twitter, cited delays in North Korea denuclearization and announced the cancellation of Pompeo's planned visit to North Korea.
I will watch responses from both sides closely.
This week too expect a focus on geopolitical risks over pure economics.
