Is it okay to start with a "cannot win trade rule"?!
The most important thing is the process of creating your own scalping trading rules.
Developing your own trading rules is essential.
Regarding trading rules, people tend to think they are high-win-rate strategies,
but in reality it is impossible to establish such ideal rules from the start.
You might be surprised, but trading rules do not necessarily have to be methods with high win rates.
However, the justification for entries and exits should be clearly defined.
Rules are essentially a “set agreement.” If you have an agreement,
you can verify the results of trades based on that standard.
Through that verification, you can continually improve.
Please think of it as the trader’s job to pursue improvement through that verification.
Rather than seeking a high-win-rate strategy from the outset,
it is important to create rules to mature gradually and
evolve them through practice.
This is the necessary action for a trader.
Most people tend to trade daily with vague rules or without any rules at all,
which is often the case.
As a result, the basis for each entry varies, and the decisions to lock in profits or cut losses are
often influenced by their emotions at the moment.
As a result, they cannot verify whether their own trading method is correct,
and even after trading for many years, they may end up with unsatisfactory results.
The root cause may be that they are seeking to win in a single trade.
To build a method that is easy to win, you need to start by establishing trading rules even if there is a possibility you might not win at first.
It may seem somewhat contradictory, but
taking a hypothesis like, “If I do this, I will win,”
and testing its validity through practice will ultimately lead to a winning method.
In FX trading, forming hypotheses, implementing them, and verifying them is an indispensable cycle.
Therefore, it is increasingly important to formulate hypotheses.
This is the first step in establishing trading rules.
The rule does not necessarily have to be one that guarantees winability.
Clarify the basis for your entries and exits and progressively refine it.
Trading rules can be executed because you create them yourself
Many people think, “If I could know a highly profitable trader’s winning method, I could become profitable too.”
However, in reality, it is not that easy.
The reason is that you have not created the method yourself.
Rules set by others lack important elements.
That is, the“process of verification and improvement”.
The person who created the rule has conducted various verifications and spent considerable time and effort to arrive at that final rule.
Why should you trade under certain conditions, how were the timings for securing profits or cutting losses considered,
and so on, they have been thought through and codified.
The fastest way to improve skills in FX is to perform this verification and improvement yourself.
So even if you know someone else’s “winning rule,”
without having experienced this important process, adhering to that rule is very difficult.
Ultimately, a trading rule only makes sense when you create it yourself.
No matter how profitable a method is, it is someone else’s method and
not something you personally conceived.
That is why it cannot be considered truly meaningful for you, and the problem is that you give up as soon as you lose a little bit.
Even if you imitate a method used by a trader who earned 1 billion yen,
it does not guarantee you will earn 1 billion yen.
And when a period of not winning comes along,
you may become emotional and blame the method that earned 1 billion yen.
Among the questions I receive, the most common is
“I tried trading a few times, but it isn’t going well.”
After trading for about a year and analyzing your own results, if you still cannot progress, you will gain considerable insight into what is wrong.
However, a few trades are not enough to verify anything.
My answer is simple: “Please keep trading more.”
That is all there is to it.
Traders who ask such questions likely feel that
“if I have a winning method, I should be able to succeed easily.”
However, to win, you must verify your own rules and continually improve,
but many do not realize this importance.
Trading rules must be created by yourself.
Books on trading know-how can be helpful, but
they lack the process of preparation that you must undertake yourself.
What is important is to prepare before entering,
not the method itself,but to think of it as a way to develop the method.
Learning this process is crucial.