Attention events and highlights for the week of 2018-08-20!!
8/20 (Monday)
Turkish market early close (13:00)
21:15 BOCWilkins BOC Deputy Governor speaking
8/21 (Tuesday)
Turkish markets closed (Sacrifice Festival)
00:00 USDFOMC? Not specified; but text: BosSTICk? Busy translation: likely "Bostic Atlanta Fed President speaking"
01:00 EURWeidmann Germany Bundesbank President speaking
07:00 AUDLow RBA Governor speaking
10:30 AUDRBA Minutes release(for Aug 7)
21:00 HFUHungary policy rate announcement
21:30 CAD Wholesale trade
8/22 (Wednesday)
Turkish market closed(Sacrifice Festival)
02:00 USD 2-year note auction
07:45 NZDQuarterly retail sales
12:10 AUDDeBell RBA Deputy Governor speaking
21:30 CADRetail sales
23:30 USD Crude oil stocks
8/23 (Thursday)
Turkish market closed(Sacrifice Festival)
US-China deputy-level trade talks
Kansas City Fed-hosted Jackson Hole meeting
US-China additional tariffs scheduled for 16.0? billion
02:00 USD 5-year note auction
03:00 USDFOMC minutes(for Aug 1)
15:00 NOKNorway GDP
16:00 EUR French services & manufacturing PMI
16:30 SEK Sweden unemployment
16:30 EUR German services & manufacturing PMI
16:30 EUR Weidmann Germany Bundesbank President speaking
17:00 EUR European services & manufacturing PMI
20:30 EURECB meeting minutes released(for July 26)
※ Is for indicator trades
8/24 (Friday)
Turkish market closed(Sacrifice Festival)
Kansas City Fed-hosted Jackson Hole meeting
Powel speaking scheduled
02:00 USD 7-year note auction
07:45 NZD New Zealand trade balance
08:30 JPY Japan CPI (Consumer Price Index)
15:00 EUR Germany GDP
16:30 SEK Sweden PPI
21:30 USD Durable goods orders
22:00 MXN Mexico GDP
23:00 USDPowell FOMC Chair speaking scheduled(Jackson Hole remarks)
8/25 (Saturday)
Kansas City Fed-hosted Jackson Hole meeting
02:00 USD Baker Hughes rig count
◎ Review of last week and points of focus this week
Last weekMarkets moved mainly around TurkeyI think.
When Erdogan in Turkey opposes the U.S. → risk-off
Risk-off eased toward the end of the week!
Turkey risk-off has drawn buyers of safe-haven currencies (yen, franc, USD).
Also,if Turkey declines, default concerns could raise worries about European financial crisis.
As a result, euro selling occurred.
In the early morning of the 18th, near New York close,rating agencies Fitch and S&P both lowered ratings.
However,Turkey is already treated as junk, so many think the impact will be limited.
What to watch regarding Turkey is long-term yields of various countries.
highly connected with Turkey Turkey, Spain, Italy long-term yields rose.
USD/TRY hourly chart
Turkish 10-year yield chart
Spain 10-year yield chart
Italy 10-year yield chart
Germany 10-year yield chart
Apart from Turkey, another focus was on US-China trade and tariff issues.Both are set to implement additional tariffs on the 23rd
both will impose additional tariffs on the 23rd, and the yuan weakness is also watched., and another focus is yuan depreciation.
yuan near weakest against USD, yuan falls, US watching closely.
USD/CNY weekly chart
Major currencies: euro fell sharply.
Against USD, euro broke below 1.1500, fell to 1.1400, then to 1.1310, euro weakening continued.
Weekend buyback around 1.1440but until Turkey issue is resolved, euro downside pressure will continue.
EUR/USD daily chart
EUR/USD hourly chart
Dollar-yen} continues to fall on risk-off yen buying amid lack of catalysts.
The market seems to oscillate between risk-on and risk-off daily, moving in a narrow range.
This week, Jackson Hole meeting is scheduled from 23rd to 25th, and Powell's speech on the 24th is planned.
With the next rate hike and December hike largely priced in, movement may be limited.
If,December rate hike is denied, a breakout to downside in USD/JPY could occur.
USD/JPY daily chart
USD/JPY hourly chart
Canada is summarized separately, see below.
Big surprise‼ Canada CPI released Aug 17 at 3.0%!
CAD/JPY daily chart
CAD/JPY hourly chart
From this week, when日 and Europe and US re-open from summer holidays, markets will gradually become more active.
UK,Brexit talks resumed since the 16th last week.
Headlines may come out.
Also,RBA・FOMC・ECB policy meeting minutes will be released.
As month-end approaches, new data will start to come out, so please stay alert.
Thanks again for your support this week.
