Turkey Lira Shock Part 2 and Mid-to-Long-Term Swap Transactions / Mid-to-Long-Term Swap Trading Methods for the Summer Olympics
Good evening, everyone.
How was your weekend?
As with yesterday, my old mobile phone and I have accumulated a lot of administrative tasks, and in the end I spent this weekend busy with work and play.
By the way, since there have been many inquiries via email, I will discuss the Turkish lira shock and mid-to-long-term investing, just like yesterday.
To repeat from yesterday, I also cut losses on 20 notes (20 million units) two days ago, and I still hold 10 notes (10 million units).
One of my best market judgments this year was closing out Turkish lira positions. At the end of last year I held more than 200 notes (over 200 million units) of Turkish lira, but I took profits during year-end/ New Year holidays, closed positions from March to May, and finally held 30 notes. It was good to reduce by more than 170 notes (170 million units).
Two and a half months ago, at the FXTF Trade Party I appeared, and I talked about mid-to-long-term swaps with the Turkish lira and the dollar/yen, and about mid-to-long-term trading methods for the summer Olympic period, so I hope you find it helpful.
http://www.radionikkei.jp/podcasting/tradeparty/2018/05/player-530.html
If I engage in mid-to-long-term swap trading in the future, I would recommend a combination of long USD/JPY and euro/dollar short positions as hedges during risk-off periods.
If I were to cautiously recommend exotic currencies (minor currencies), perhaps a small position in Brazilian real/yen, offered only by IG Securities, paired with the two currencies mentioned above.
In mid-to-long-term investments, leverage should be 1x (0.5x is also acceptable), and with a maximum of 2–3x, with plans to hold until around the Tokyo Olympics. (Note: there may be partial liquidations due to major global market risk-off events or changes in the Abe administration’s policies.)
Tomorrow the markets will start with a bang. Even fun markets can turn scary if you mismanage your funds.
Especially since this is the market following last weekend’s Turkish lira shock, I will approach it with more caution and enjoy the markets accordingly.
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