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08/13/2018 00:22
Release： 08/13/2018 00:22
Update： 04/08/2021 02:35
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FXトレード 今週の注目イベントとスケジュール
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Highlighted events and key points for the week of August 13, 2018!

 

8/13 (Monday)

15:00 SEK Sweden unemployment rate

8/14 (Tuesday)

11:00 CNY China industrial production & retail sales
15:00 EUR Germany CPI (Consumer Price Index) & HICP & GDP
16:00 HFU Hungary GDP
17:30 GBPEmployment change & unemployment rate
18:00 EUR Eurozone GDP

8/15 (Wednesday)

09:30 AUD Westpac consumer confidence index
16:00 TRYTurkey unemployment rate & budget balance
17:30 GBPCPI (Consumer Price Index)
21:30 USDRetail sales
23:30 USD Crude oil inventories

8/16 (Thursday)

08:50 JPYTrade balance
10:30 AUDChange in employed persons & unemployment rate
17:00 NOKNorway policy rate announcement
17:30 GBPRetail sales
18:00 EUR Trade balance
21:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

8/17 (Friday)

07:30 NZD Quarterly PPI
08:30 AUDLow RBA Governor testimony (semiannual parliamentary testimony)
16:30 AUDElizabeth RBA Deputy Governor remarks
18:00 EUR CPI (Consumer Price Index)
21:30 CADCPI (Consumer Price Index)
23:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

8/18 (Saturday)

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

※　　indicators planned for trading

 

 

◎ Review of last week and points to watch this week


1) Turkish shock (Turkey vs. US)Turkish lira

last weekend caused a fall so drastic it could be called a “shock”thatTurkish Lira !!

Turkish shockoccurred from Tokyo close to NY open.

At the start of the week, we will be watching how the Tokyo market reacts.

During the weekend, some brokers reviewed exposure to the Turkish lira and changed margin requirements.Some brokers also perform stop-out at mark-to-market.There is a possibility of lira selling at open on Monday.

Not only individual FX positions, but also options and lira-denominated bonds may react.

We will watch how reactions unfold at the Monday open.

What will Turkey do next?

 

What will President Erdogan do?

It’s not clear, but this week will be one to watch the moves of Erdogan and Trump.

For Turkey, I’ve summarized the following. Please refer to.

 

Turkish Lira plummet! Turkey Shock of August 10, 2018 – summary

 

2)Japan-US trade talks

Should have been the main focus last weekJapan-US trade talks!

Behind the Turkish shock,the talks failed and were postponed to September (carried over).

 

3)RMB depreciation

China continues to see yuan depreciation,9 weeks of yuan depreciation in a row,near the lowest against the dollar.

The cause includes a strong dollar, but China also seems to be using it as one of the countermeasures in the tariff/trade war.

The yuan depreciation is also watched by the US, so it’s noteworthy.

 



USD/CNY weekly chart

 


4)US-China trade and tariff issues

Related to the yuan depreciation above, trade and tariff war between US and China is worsening.From the 23rd, additional tariffs and retaliatory tariffs have left both sides unable to concede.

President Trump is on vacation in New Jersey until the 13th..

 

5)Global equity declines




Note: currency strength/weakness graph at close on Aug 10

 

 



 

6)Brexit negotiations

Within Europe, banks speak of a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit and this uncertainty is pressuring the pound.

The pound has finally fallen below 1.300 against the dollar, marking a year-to-date low.

Disruption to negotiations could suddenly lead to a hard exit!

 



GBP/USD daily chart

 

7)European financial and political issues

 

This week many countries are on vacation (Japan also), so markets may be thin.In such a context, big events or statements can cause flash crashes.

Be mindful of risk management as you trade.We appreciate your continued support this week as well.

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GogoJungle Inc.
Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
Member Association: Japan Investment Advisers Association GogoJungle Inc.
Registration: Director-General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business) No. 1960
Member Association: Japan Investment Advisers Association
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