Positions for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY, including lower support levels, confirmations of upward resume, confirmations of downward resume, and retracement resistance values. The Nikkei Stock Average will publish buy/sell positions.

Following the "morning positions at NY close," the currency market will comment on changes in the market mood caused by new positions and the possibility of changing the initial position at Tokyo 12:00 (or 11:00, 13:00), Tokyo 17:00 (or 18:00), and Tokyo 24:00 (or 25:00). The Nikkei Stock Average publishes buy/sell positions and stop levels after the close.

※※※※※※※※※※TH-TL Fibonacci Number System※※※※※※※※※※

When rising, use the 0.618 value of the previous day's true range…

The price obtained by subtracting the previous day's high defines the lower support.

The price added to the previous day's low is the uptrend resume-confirmation point.During declines, the 0.618 value of the previous day's true range…The price obtained by subtracting the previous day's high is the downtrend resume-confirmation point.The price added to the previous day's low forms the retracement resistance.■In rising markets, from the lower support to the uptrend resume-confirmation point, form a push-up zone and take a buying stance.■In falling markets, from the downtrend resume-confirmation point to the retracement resistance, in a retracement formation zone, take a selling stance.■If a counter-trend move exceeds both the retracement resistance and the lower support, it signals a reversal.※If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, after final confirmation before NY close, the new position is moved to an overnight position and the initial position is settled. If a new intraday position during the day is canceled midway, the initial position up to that point remains. Therefore, when a new position arises due to intraday balance changes, it will be a paired position with the initial position, and when this new position is canceled, a differential loss may occur.※※※※※※※※※※TH-TL Fibonacci Number System※※※※※※※※※※For reference) Morning positions at NY close, published 2023/7/29■Position changes, signs — July 28 (Friday)・In Tokyo morning, the yen strengthened across the board. As Europe time approached, the dollar rose and AUD weakened. From NY to London fixings, the yen weakened and the dollar weakened. The NY close saw the yen broadly weaker against the dollar.・Daytime balance shifted to euro-yen buy 154.70, yen-buy 180.21, and dollar-buy 140.36, moving to an overnight position.・Against the dollar, yen, AUD, GBP, EUR (intraday basis) ranked from weakest to strongest.・After economic data releases, AUD stalled and declined.・At the BoJ policy meeting, the bond-yield operations at 1.0% tilted strongly toward yen strength. After moving around the intraday range's center, in NY time yen shorts led, and then NY close saw yen broadly weaker.------------------------------------------・U.S. Treasuries saw buying in 5-year, 2-year, and 10-year, pushing yields lower (bull steepening).US02yr 4.861 (-0.052)US05yr 4.177 (-0.067)US10yr 3.953 (-0.051)・Japanese government bonds yields rose a notch.JP02yr -0.012 (+0.030)JP05yr 0.160 (+0.069)JP10yr 0.576 (+0.138)------------------------------------------■Main economic indicators (US-focused), rate decisions, events, and news08:30 Tokyo metropolitan area July CPI (excluding fresh food; headline YoY expected +2.9%)TBD BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (after it ends, decision announced; expected: policy rate kept at -0.10%)15:30 Kazuo Ueda, BoJ Governor, regular press conference10:30 Australia 4–6月期 PPI (Producer Price Index)10:30 Australia June Retail Sales (expected: MoM flat)14:30 France 4–6月期 GDP (flash) (expected QoQ +0.1%)15:45 France July CPI flash (MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.3%)21:00 Germany July CPI flash (YoY +0.3% / +6.2%)21:30 US June PCE (MoM +0.4% expected)US June Personal Income (MoM +0.5%)US June PCE deflator (YoY +3.0%)US June PCE core deflator (MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.2%)23:00 US July Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan; final; expected 72.6)-------------------------------------------・July Tokyo区部 CPI YoY -3.2% (previous -3.1%)・July Tokyo区部 CPI Core YoY -3.0% (previous -3.2%)・Australia June Retail Sales MoM -0.8% (previous -0.8%)・Australia Q2 PPI QoQ +0.5% (previous -0.7%)・BOJ maintains -0.1% key policy rate・BOJ Statement“If necessary, we will not hesitate to ease further.”“Decided to modify the YCC”“Flexibilize the 10-year JGB yield operation”・Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report)Fiscal year 2023 CPI (excluding fresh food) projected at +2.5% (April +1.8%), FY24 +1.9% (April +2.0%), FY25 +1.6% (April +1.6%).Fiscal year 2023 real GDP growth forecast +1.3% (April +1.4%), FY24 +1.2% (January +1.2%), FY25 +1.0% (April +1.0%).・Policy rate operations (8 in favor, 1 against)The range for long-term interest rate fluctuations aims for roughly ±0.5%, and long- and short-term rate operations will be used more flexibly. For the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, fixed-rate bids at a yield of 1.0% will be conducted every trading day unless clear bidding is unlikely. To form an interest-rate environment consistent with the above policy and to promote an appropriate yield curve, the BoJ will continue large-scale government bond purchases and, for each maturity, dynamically adjust the purchase amount and conduct fixed-rate operations, common collateral funding operations, etc.・Ueda, BoJ Governor“Not a move toward policy normalization = YCC modification”“Uncertain whether YCC flexibility will reduce government bond purchases”“FX is not a target”“We are considering, this time, FX market volatility as part of the easing side effects.”“To curb financial market volatility.”・France July CPI YoY -4.3% (previous -4.5%)・US June PCE core deflator MoM -0.2% (previous -0.3%)・US June Personal Income MoM +0.3% (previous +0.5%)・US June Personal Spending MoM +0.5% (previous +0.2%)・US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence 71.6 (previous 64.4)・WSJ: US recession years away; how long can growth last・WSJ: Recession fading, US GDP growth accelerates(If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, after final confirmation before NY close, the new position is moved to overnight and the initial position is settled. If a new intraday position is canceled mid-way, the initial position remains. Therefore, when new positions arise due to intraday balance changes, they will be in a hedged state with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, a loss may occur.)■USD/JPY7/28－BUY＠140.367/26－SELL＠140.657/14－BUY＠138.577/6－SELL＠144.327/5－BUY＠144.52(LAST＠141.17）Lower support 139.26, uptrend resume-confirmation point 140.00■EUR/USD7/27－SELL＠1.10637/26－BUY＠1.10637/19－SELL＠1.12337/7－BUY＠1.08877/4－SELL＠1.0894(LAST＠1.1016）Downtrend resume-confirmation point 1.0983, retracement resistance 1.1008■GBP/USD7/27－SELL＠1.29077/25－BUY＠1.28517/17－SELL＠1.30917/7－BUY＠1.27187/5－SELL＠1.2704(LAST＠1.2846）Downtrend resume-confirmation point 1.2810, retracement resistance 1.2839■AUD/USD7/27－SELL＠0.67537/25－BUY＠0.67417/17－SELL＠0.68307/7－BUY＠0.66547/5－SELL＠0.6665(LAST＠0.6647）Downtrend resume-confirmation point 0.6658, retracement resistance 0.6680■EUR/JPY7/28－BUY＠154.707/27－SELL＠156.507/21－BUY＠156.347/20－SELL＠156.367/13－BUY＠154.11(LAST＠155.52）Lower support 153.02, uptrend resume-confirmation point 154.00■GBP/JPY7/28－BUY＠180.217/27－SELL＠181.307/21－BUY＠180.387/18－SELL＠181.177/13－BUY＠180.73(LAST＠181.35)Lower support 178.31, uptrend resume-confirmation point 179.52■AUD/JPY7/26－SELL＠95.437/19－BUY＠94.417/17－SELL＠94.867/13－BUY＠93.867/5－SELL＠96.36(LAST＠93.84）Downtrend resume-confirmation point 92.74, retracement resistance 93.30Related article Oct 14DXY2023: The Dollar Index has been in an upward trend since 10/12 (lower support and the uptrend resume-confirmation point)■U.S.Dollar Index(DXY)－10/12－Upward trend＠106.58Lower support 106.48, uptrend resume-confirmation point 106.60(LAST＠106.67）10/4－Downward trend＠106.7710/2－Upward trend＠107.029/28－Downward trend＠106.159/20－Upward trend＠105.359/18－Downward trend＠105.089/13－Upward trend＠104.779/11－Downward trend＠104.518/31－Upward trend＠103.638/29－Downward trend＠103.498/24－Upward trend＠103.988/23－Downward trend＠103.368/22－Upward trend＠103.618/21－Downward trend＠103.338/8－Upward trend＠102.548/4－Downward trend＠102.017/27－Upward trend＠101.777/26－Downward trend＠101.047/19－Upward trend＠100.287/7－Downward trend＠102.277/4－Upward trend＠103.096/30－Downward trend＠102.926/28－Upward trend＠102.986/27－Downward trend＠102.516/23－Upward trend＠102.876/21－Downward trend＠102.086/19－Upward trend＠102.496/13－Downward trend＠103.306/12－Upward trend＠103.646/8－Downward trend＠103.336/2－Upward trend＠104.045/30－Downward trend＠104.075/9－Upward trend＠101.635/3－Downward trend＠101.264/28－Upward trend＠101.674/26－Downward trend＠101.454/25－Upward trend＠101.884/20－Downward trend＠101.814/19－Upward trend＠101.934/18－Downward trend＠101.754/14－Upward trend＠101.584/11－Downward trend＠102.144/7－Upward trend＠102.094/3－Downward trend＠102.063/31－Upward trend＠102.593/27－Downward trend＠102.853/24－Upward trend＠103.123/17－Downward trend＠103.863/15－Upward trend＠104.743/9－Downward trend＠105.243/7－Upward trend＠105.623/3－Downward trend＠104.533/2－Upward trend＠104.983/1－Downward trend＠104.412/15－Upward trend＠103.832/14－Downward trend＠103.262/3－Upward trend＠102.992/1－Downward trend＠101.171/27－Upward trend＠101.921/6－Downward trend＠103.911/3－Upward trend＠104.69------------------------------------------Euro (EUR), 57.6% weightJapanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weightPound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weightCanadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weightSwedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weightSwiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weightHere are Hokuto Seisan's published articles!

During declines, the 0.618 value of the previous day's true range…

The price obtained by subtracting the previous day's high is the downtrend resume-confirmation point.

The price added to the previous day's low forms the retracement resistance.

■In rising markets, from the lower support to the uptrend resume-confirmation point, form a push-up zone and take a buying stance.

■In falling markets, from the downtrend resume-confirmation point to the retracement resistance, in a retracement formation zone, take a selling stance.

■If a counter-trend move exceeds both the retracement resistance and the lower support, it signals a reversal.

※If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, after final confirmation before NY close, the new position is moved to an overnight position and the initial position is settled. If a new intraday position during the day is canceled midway, the initial position up to that point remains. Therefore, when a new position arises due to intraday balance changes, it will be a paired position with the initial position, and when this new position is canceled, a differential loss may occur.

※※※※※※※※※※TH-TL Fibonacci Number System※※※※※※※※※※

For reference) Morning positions at NY close, published 2023/7/29

■Position changes, signs — July 28 (Friday)

・In Tokyo morning, the yen strengthened across the board. As Europe time approached, the dollar rose and AUD weakened. From NY to London fixings, the yen weakened and the dollar weakened. The NY close saw the yen broadly weaker against the dollar.

・Daytime balance shifted to euro-yen buy 154.70, yen-buy 180.21, and dollar-buy 140.36, moving to an overnight position.

・Against the dollar, yen, AUD, GBP, EUR (intraday basis) ranked from weakest to strongest.

・After economic data releases, AUD stalled and declined.

・At the BoJ policy meeting, the bond-yield operations at 1.0% tilted strongly toward yen strength. After moving around the intraday range's center, in NY time yen shorts led, and then NY close saw yen broadly weaker.

------------------------------------------

・U.S. Treasuries saw buying in 5-year, 2-year, and 10-year, pushing yields lower (bull steepening).

US02yr 4.861 (-0.052)

US05yr 4.177 (-0.067)

US10yr 3.953 (-0.051)

・Japanese government bonds yields rose a notch.

JP02yr -0.012 (+0.030)

JP05yr 0.160 (+0.069)

JP10yr 0.576 (+0.138)

------------------------------------------

■Main economic indicators (US-focused), rate decisions, events, and news

08:30 Tokyo metropolitan area July CPI (excluding fresh food; headline YoY expected +2.9%)

TBD BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (after it ends, decision announced; expected: policy rate kept at -0.10%)

15:30 Kazuo Ueda, BoJ Governor, regular press conference

10:30 Australia 4–6月期 PPI (Producer Price Index)

10:30 Australia June Retail Sales (expected: MoM flat)

14:30 France 4–6月期 GDP (flash) (expected QoQ +0.1%)

15:45 France July CPI flash (MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.3%)

21:00 Germany July CPI flash (YoY +0.3% / +6.2%)

21:30 US June PCE (MoM +0.4% expected)

US June Personal Income (MoM +0.5%)

US June PCE deflator (YoY +3.0%)

US June PCE core deflator (MoM +0.2% / YoY +4.2%)

23:00 US July Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan; final; expected 72.6)

-------------------------------------------

・July Tokyo区部 CPI YoY -3.2% (previous -3.1%)

・July Tokyo区部 CPI Core YoY -3.0% (previous -3.2%)

・Australia June Retail Sales MoM -0.8% (previous -0.8%)

・Australia Q2 PPI QoQ +0.5% (previous -0.7%)

・BOJ maintains -0.1% key policy rate

・BOJ Statement

“If necessary, we will not hesitate to ease further.”

“Decided to modify the YCC”

“Flexibilize the 10-year JGB yield operation”

・Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report)

Fiscal year 2023 CPI (excluding fresh food) projected at +2.5% (April +1.8%), FY24 +1.9% (April +2.0%), FY25 +1.6% (April +1.6%).

Fiscal year 2023 real GDP growth forecast +1.3% (April +1.4%), FY24 +1.2% (January +1.2%), FY25 +1.0% (April +1.0%).

・Policy rate operations (8 in favor, 1 against)

The range for long-term interest rate fluctuations aims for roughly ±0.5%, and long- and short-term rate operations will be used more flexibly. For the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, fixed-rate bids at a yield of 1.0% will be conducted every trading day unless clear bidding is unlikely. To form an interest-rate environment consistent with the above policy and to promote an appropriate yield curve, the BoJ will continue large-scale government bond purchases and, for each maturity, dynamically adjust the purchase amount and conduct fixed-rate operations, common collateral funding operations, etc.

・Ueda, BoJ Governor

“Not a move toward policy normalization = YCC modification”

“Uncertain whether YCC flexibility will reduce government bond purchases”

“FX is not a target”

“We are considering, this time, FX market volatility as part of the easing side effects.”

“To curb financial market volatility.”

・France July CPI YoY -4.3% (previous -4.5%)

・US June PCE core deflator MoM -0.2% (previous -0.3%)

・US June Personal Income MoM +0.3% (previous +0.5%)

・US June Personal Spending MoM +0.5% (previous +0.2%)

・US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence 71.6 (previous 64.4)

・WSJ: US recession years away; how long can growth last

・WSJ: Recession fading, US GDP growth accelerates

(If there is a change in intraday balance and a new position is taken, after final confirmation before NY close, the new position is moved to overnight and the initial position is settled. If a new intraday position is canceled mid-way, the initial position remains. Therefore, when new positions arise due to intraday balance changes, they will be in a hedged state with the initial position, and if this new position is canceled, a loss may occur.)

■USD/JPY

7/28－BUY＠140.36

7/26－SELL＠140.65

7/14－BUY＠138.57

7/6－SELL＠144.32

7/5－BUY＠144.52

(LAST＠141.17）

Lower support 139.26, uptrend resume-confirmation point 140.00

■EUR/USD

7/27－SELL＠1.1063

7/26－BUY＠1.1063

7/19－SELL＠1.1233

7/7－BUY＠1.0887

7/4－SELL＠1.0894

(LAST＠1.1016）

Downtrend resume-confirmation point 1.0983, retracement resistance 1.1008

■GBP/USD

7/27－SELL＠1.2907

7/25－BUY＠1.2851

7/17－SELL＠1.3091

7/7－BUY＠1.2718

7/5－SELL＠1.2704

(LAST＠1.2846）

Downtrend resume-confirmation point 1.2810, retracement resistance 1.2839

■AUD/USD

7/27－SELL＠0.6753

7/25－BUY＠0.6741

7/17－SELL＠0.6830

7/7－BUY＠0.6654

7/5－SELL＠0.6665

(LAST＠0.6647）

Downtrend resume-confirmation point 0.6658, retracement resistance 0.6680

■EUR/JPY

7/28－BUY＠154.70

7/27－SELL＠156.50

7/21－BUY＠156.34

7/20－SELL＠156.36

7/13－BUY＠154.11

(LAST＠155.52）

Lower support 153.02, uptrend resume-confirmation point 154.00

■GBP/JPY

7/28－BUY＠180.21

7/27－SELL＠181.30

7/21－BUY＠180.38

7/18－SELL＠181.17

7/13－BUY＠180.73

(LAST＠181.35)

Lower support 178.31, uptrend resume-confirmation point 179.52

■AUD/JPY

7/26－SELL＠95.43

7/19－BUY＠94.41

7/17－SELL＠94.86

7/13－BUY＠93.86

7/5－SELL＠96.36

(LAST＠93.84）

Downtrend resume-confirmation point 92.74, retracement resistance 93.30

Hokutosei Special Feature Article (Culture Day) "Hokutosei's Practical Position Trading" – Background of buying and selling