MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Oct.10 2023

1. Review

The Nikkei Stock Average closed last week at 30,994, down 862 points from the previous week. The week's high was 32,401 on Monday the 2nd. The week's low was 30,487 on Wednesday the 4th. The weekly high approached the upper price resistance line but did not surpass it and turned down. Since the closing price fell below the weekly lower support line, the outlook was weak. Moreover, this closing price has been below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (T.I.P.: 31,447) for three consecutive weeks. Therefore the underlying trend has been downgraded from “neutral” to “weak”.

2. Cycles

As explained in Forecast 2023 released last December, the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term cycle of 17 years. The starting point is 6,994 on October 28, 2008. 2023 is the 15th year of that cycle. This cycle is divided into two halves by an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the double bottom formed by 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12, 2016. From here, the second half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) has begun.

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