This year's biggest yen market big event‼ Considering measures to mitigate side effects of large-scale monetary easing! An exit is visible, but have all materials been exhausted!

The USD/JPY pair, supported by the largest-ever M&A on record, stretched to the 113 yen area, but

as reports emerged, momentum gradually faded and, along with President Trump’s

remarks about a stronger dollar and expectations of Bank of Japan easing adjustments, it fell back to the 110 yen area.

On the daily chart, there were moments when breaking above a long-term resistance line indicated a breakout, but

on the monthly chart, although not yet confirmed, it has stalled after a bullish tail and upper wick

and the breakout is becoming a false breakout.



“The dollar/yen should confirm a breakout above the upper resistance on the monthly basis.”

“If you know, it’s too late—historic M&A was underpinning the dollar/yen’s stability!”



On the blog, I have been posting daily articles, but this time the cross-yen pairs have not turned upward

To expect a significant upside move in USD/JPY, conditions are far from ideal, so

it seems a unilateral breakout was attempted.



Now, there is an important event at the end of the month for the yen regime, and the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting next week to

discuss measures to ease the side effects of unprecedented monetary easing,

and there is a possibility of concrete actions being announced.

There have always been rumors that sent the yen higher, so

how they can signal a calm exit to the markets, so as not to impact financial markets, remains the blind spot, and eventually the exit strategy door may finally be touched.





“A truly strong yen in the summer would require... ”

“USD/JPY—buy dips for the rest of this month! Sell into the spike!”



At present, the price has stalled from the 113s and is eyeing the 110s,

and although there is still a potential buying opportunity, the subsequent moves have been very

heavy, and with the BoJ policy meeting at month-end approaching, both buyers and sellers are

holding back.

Because the BoJ policy meeting date falls at month-end, market attention is also on the monthly closing price,

and if it closes below 110, the outlook may deteriorate, especially since

early next month there are also FOMC and U.S. payrolls data ahead,

so position adjustments and thin-market maneuvering could occur,

which could lead to a rapid drop, and with U.S. stocks staying near highs,

it's prudent to prepare for the possibility of Trump’s two-front approach as well.



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On the upside, near-term highs are under pressure from President Trump’s concerns about a stronger dollar, while on the downside,

the historic M&A supported 110, and the market will continue to watch how this area is interpreted,

and I will be watching closely to see whether the market behavior continues to be mindful of this level.



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