MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Average Stock Price By Raymond Merriman Sep.25 2023

1. Retrospective

The Nikkei Stock Average closed last week at 32,402, down 1,130 points from the previous week. The week's high was on the 19th (Tuesday) at 33,337. The week's low was on the 22nd (Friday) at 32,154. The closing price for the week fell below the weekly support line, so the outlook was bearish. Furthermore, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP; last week 32,826) for the first time in four weeks. Therefore, the underlying trend has been downgraded from an “uptrend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As explained in last December’s “Forecast 2023,” the Nikkei Stock Average has a long-term market cycle of 17 years. The starting point is October 28, 2008, at 6,994. 2023 marks the 15th year of that cycle. This cycle is divided into two parts in an 8.33-year cycle, with the first half ending at the “double bottom” of 14,864 on June 24, 2016 and 14,865 on February 12 of the same year. The second half (the 2nd–8.33 year cycle) has now begun.

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